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Disconnected comparison support does not identify Gibbs policy mass

Statement refuted

For one prompt with finite nonempty response set Y, reference probability vector q=(qy)y∈Y with qy>0 and ∑yqy=1, coefficient β>0, and undirected graph G=(Y,E) with E⊆{{u,v}:u,v∈Y, u≠v} and at least two connected components, the exact Bradley–Terry probabilities on every observed edge uniquely determine the Gibbs-optimal policy for every reward r:Y→R. For an edge {u,v} the two orientations have probabilities σ(r(u)−r(v)) and σ(r(v)−r(u)), where σ(t)=(1+e−t)−1. An edge is one observed pair, and two vertices lie in the same connected component exactly when a finite path of observed edges joins them.

Statement references

Finite Bradley–Terry preference model: gives the comparison probability from a reward difference.

Finite-action Gibbs policy theorem: gives the unique policy for each reward and reference.

Natural logarithm: gives elog⁡3=3 in the witness.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite response set Y={a,b,c,d}, uniform reference qy=1/4, coefficient β=1, and observed edge set E={{a,b},{c,d}}.

[F1]

Finite Bradley–Terry preference model: for a distinct pair, Pr⁡(u≻v)=σ(r(u)−r(v)) with σ(t)=(1+e−t)−1.

[F2]

The finite-action Gibbs policy uniquely maximizes reward minus KL: the unique regularized policy is py∗=qyer(y)/β/Z with Z=∑yqyer(y)/β.

Counterexample

1.1F1givenalgebra

Let r0(a)=r0(b)=r0(c)=r0(d)=0 and let r1(a)=r1(b)=0, r1(c)=r1(d)=log⁡3. On each observed edge the two endpoint rewards agree under both functions, so [F1] gives the same comparison probability σ(0)=1/2.

2.1F2F3givenstep 1.1algebra

Under r0, [F2] has four unnormalized weights 1/4, so Z0=1 and p0∗=(1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4). Under r1, [F3] gives unnormalized weights (1/4,1/4,3/4,3/4), hence Z1=2 and p1∗=(1/8,1/8,3/8,3/8).

3.1givenstep 1.1step 2.1algebra∎

The observed edge probabilities are identical by step 1.1, while the two Gibbs policies differ by step 2.1. Therefore the exact comparison probabilities on this disconnected graph do not uniquely determine the policy, refuting the Statement.

Comparison graph

The vertices below are responses, and an undirected edge records one observed pair. The two connected components are {a,b} and {c,d}; there are no observed cross-component comparisons. This diagram only displays the stated edge set; the verification above uses the explicit set E and formulas.

diagram failed to render:
\begin{tikzpicture}[every node/.style={circle,draw,minimum size=8mm}]
  \node (a) at (0,0) {$a$};
  \node (b) at (1.5,0) {$b$};
  \node (c) at (4,0) {$c$};
  \node (d) at (5.5,0) {$d$};
  \draw (a) -- (b);
  \draw (c) -- (d);
\end{tikzpicture}

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