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CounterexampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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Nondecaying correction variance can force cubic cost

Statement refuted

Bias order one and per-sample work O(hℓ−1) alone guarantee the logarithmic MLMC work bound O(ϵ−2(log⁡ϵ−1)2).

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite MLMC hierarchy, the claimed universal complexity bound above, and the counterexample construction below.

[F1]

Geometric MLMC hierarchy and coupled corrections: adjacent-level couplings need only have the correct marginal laws, and level sample blocks are independent.

[F2]

Expectation, variance, and MSE of a finite MLMC estimator: the MLMC MSE is squared finest-level bias plus the sum of each correction variance divided by its sample count.

Counterexample

Let T=1, M=2, hℓ=2−ℓ, target P=0, and Pℓ=hℓ+Zℓ, where each Zℓ is Rademacher. At level ℓ≥1, couple the fine and coarse marginals independently: use independent Rademacher variables Zℓf and Zℓ−1c and set Δℓ=(hℓ+Zℓf)−(hℓ−1+Zℓ−1c). At level 0, use Δ0=1+Z0. Take the level sample blocks independent and charge hℓ−1 work per draw.

Given: Any finite level L and positive integer sample counts for which the estimator has MSE at most ϵ2.

1.1F1givenalgebra

Since EPℓ=hℓ, the finest-level bias is hL, so this hierarchy has bias order α=1. For ℓ≥1, the independent centered Rademacher terms have variance 1+1=2, hence Var⁡(Δℓ)=2 and no bound O(hℓβ) holds for any β>0. The sample cost is exactly hℓ−1.

2.1F2step 1.1givenalgebra∎

By [F2], the MSE is hL2+1N0+2∑ℓ=1L1Nℓ. Thus MSE at most ϵ2 requires hL≤ϵ and NL≥2ϵ−2. The finest-level work alone is therefore NLhL−1≥2ϵ−3. This grows faster than ϵ−2(log⁡ϵ−1)2, so the claimed logarithmic bound fails without a positive correction-variance decay rate.

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