Alphabeta Math
CounterexampleConstruction: Literature-sourcedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-14
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Optional stopping fails for an unbounded simple-random-walk hitting time

Statement

Assume AC. For simple symmetric random walk S0=0 and τ=inf{n0:Sn=1}, define Sτ=0 on {τ=}. Then τ is almost surely finite, but Sτ=1 almost surely and ESτ=10=ES0.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses, objects, and conventions in the Statement.

[F1]

Gambler's ruin hitting probability from optional stopping computes finite-interval hitting probabilities.

[F2]
[F3]

The Axiom of Choice is inherited from F1 and the martingale interface.

Counterexample

1.1

For a1, let Ea be the event that the walk hits 1 before a. Translating the symmetric ruin interval to {0,a+1} with starting point a, F1 gives P(Ea)=aa+1. The Ea increase, and their union is {τ<}: a path that reaches 1 has a finite minimum before that time and therefore belongs to some Ea. Continuity from below gives P(τ<)=1.

F1
2.1

By definition, Sτ=1 on this probability-one event, whereas S0=0. Thus their expectations differ. This explicitly shows that almost-sure finiteness alone cannot justify passing from τn to τ in bounded optional sampling, as F2 warns. AC has exactly the inherited role in F3.

F2F3step 1.1

Depends on

Used by

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Sources