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Regular conditional laws are not unique on null conditioning values
Statement refuted
False assertion: regular conditional laws of X given Y must agree at every conditioning value y.
Assume AC for the compact integration bridge. Let Y be uniform on (0,1) and X=0 identically, with both targets real. The kernels for all y and
are two distinct versions of the same conditional law.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement refuted.
RCDs require probability sections, measurable evaluations and conditioning-event identities. Regular conditional distribution.
The kernel conditions apply at every conditioning value. Measure kernel and probability kernel.
The uniform normalization follows by integrating one on [0,1]. The second fundamental theorem: if is differentiable on with and is integrable, then .
The compact integral agrees with Lebesgue integration under countable choice. A bounded Riemann integrable function on a closed bounded interval is Lebesgue measurable and has the same integral.
AC supplies countable choice for the compact integral bridge. The Axiom of Choice.
The interval density defines the sample probability. The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure.
Counterexample
Take with Borel sigma-algebra and Lebesgue probability, Y(omega)=omega and X(omega)=0. The mass is one by [F3]–[F6], integrating the constant derivative of x on [0,1] and ignoring its null endpoints. The singleton is Borel and has measure zero: for every positive integer n it is contained in an interval of length , so its measure is at most and hence zero. Each Dirac section is a probability because for disjoint sets at most one contains its point. For Borel A, a measurable function; K has constant measurable evaluations. Thus both satisfy [F2].
For every and Borel A, . The difference is bounded in absolute value by , whose integral over H is zero. Therefore L satisfies the same identity, proving [F1] for both kernels. They nevertheless disagree at y=1/2: for the event A={1}, whereas . This is a difference of probability measures at an actual conditioning value in (0,1), not merely outside the range of Y. Their equality outside N is consistent with almost-everywhere uniqueness.
Depends on
- Regular conditional distribution
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- The second fundamental theorem: if $G$ is differentiable on $[a,b]$ with $G' = f$ and $f$ is integrable, then $\int_a^b f = G(b)-G(a)$
- A bounded Riemann integrable function on a closed bounded interval is Lebesgue measurable and has the same integral
- The Axiom of Choice
- The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure
Used by
Nothing in the library uses this result yet.
Dependency tree · two levels
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Sources
- Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, fifth edition (standard reference, not scraped)
- Varadhan, Probability Theory, Chapter 4 (standard reference, not scraped)