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Regular conditional laws are not unique on null conditioning values

Statement refuted

False assertion: regular conditional laws of X given Y must agree at every conditioning value y.

Assume AC for the compact integration bridge. Let Y be uniform on (0,1) and X=0 identically, with both targets real. The kernels K(y,)=δ0 for all y and L(y,)={δ1,y=1/2,δ0,y1/2

are two distinct versions of the same conditional law.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement refuted.

[F1]

RCDs require probability sections, measurable evaluations and conditioning-event identities. Regular conditional distribution.

[F2]

The kernel conditions apply at every conditioning value. Measure kernel and probability kernel.

[F4]

The compact integral agrees with Lebesgue integration under countable choice. A bounded Riemann integrable function on a closed bounded interval is Lebesgue measurable and has the same integral.

[F5]

AC supplies countable choice for the compact integral bridge. The Axiom of Choice.

[F6]

The interval density defines the sample probability. The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure.

Counterexample

technique · direct
1.1

Take Ω=(0,1) with Borel sigma-algebra and Lebesgue probability, Y(omega)=omega and X(omega)=0. The mass is one by [F3]–[F6], integrating the constant derivative of x on [0,1] and ignoring its null endpoints. The singleton N={1/2} is Borel and has measure zero: for every positive integer n it is contained in an interval of length 2/n, so its measure is at most 2/n and hence zero. Each Dirac section is a probability because for disjoint sets at most one contains its point. For Borel A, L(y,A)=1A(0)+1{1/2}(y)(1A(1)1A(0)), a measurable function; K has constant measurable evaluations. Thus both satisfy [F2].

F2F3F4F5F6
2.1

For every Hσ(Y) and Borel A, HK(Y,A)dP=1A(0)P(H)=P(H{XA}). The difference L(Y,A)K(Y,A) is bounded in absolute value by 1N(Y), whose integral over H is zero. Therefore L satisfies the same identity, proving [F1] for both kernels. They nevertheless disagree at y=1/2: for the event A={1}, K(1/2,A)=0 whereas L(1/2,A)=1. This is a difference of probability measures at an actual conditioning value in (0,1), not merely outside the range of Y. Their equality outside N is consistent with almost-everywhere uniqueness.

step 1.1F1

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