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The uniform endpoint MLE has rate n, not square-root n

Statement refuted

For an integer n≥1, iid Xi∼Unif⁡[0,θ] with fixed θ>0 have an endpoint MLE with a nonzero root-n fluctuation: n(θ−X(n)) does not converge in probability to zero.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: θ>0, IID observations with density pθ(x)=θ−11[0,θ](x), and X(n):=max⁡1≤i≤nXi.

[F1]

IID means a common law and mutual independence (Identical distribution and IID families); a probability law has total mass one (Probability measures and probability spaces).

[F2]

QMD at an interior point requires a square-root-density score remainder with squared L2(μ) norm o(h2) (Quadratic-mean differentiability at a parameter).

[F3]

For real random variables, Yn⇒Y means convergence of CDFs at every continuity point of the limiting CDF (Convergence in distribution for real random variables).

[F4]

Yn→Py means P(∣Yn−y∣>ε)→0 for every ε>0 (Convergence in probability).

Counterexample

The parameter space is Θ=(0,∞) and the common dominating measure is Lebesgue measure. The MLE is understood almost surely; on the null event X(n)=0, assign any fixed positive value.

Given: The Uniform model and IID sample in the Statement.

1.1F1givenalgebra

On the probability-one event 0<X(n)≤θ, the likelihood at a candidate u>0 is Ln(u)=∏i=1npu(Xi)=u−n1{X(n)≤u}. It is zero for u<X(n), while for u≥X(n) it equals u−n≤X(n)−n=Ln(X(n)), with strict inequality if u>X(n). Thus X(n) maximizes the likelihood almost surely; on the null event X(n)=0, use the arbitrary positive assignment specified above.

1.2F1givenalgebra

For 0≤t<nθ, independence and the uniform CDF give Pθ{n(θ−X(n))>t}=Pθ{Xi<θ−t/n for every i}=(1−t/(nθ))n. For fixed t≥0 this formula applies for all sufficiently large n, and its limit is e−t/θ.

1.3F2givenassume-contraalgebradischarge-contradiction: the gained-support remainder is not $o(h^2)$

For every h>0 small enough that θ+h>0, the gained support interval (θ,θ+h] has pθ=0 and pθ+h=1/(θ+h). If the model were QMD at θ, the score term in [F2] would vanish on this interval and the squared remainder integral would be at least ∫θθ+hpθ+h(x) dx=h/(θ+h). But [h/(θ+h)]/h2=1/[h(θ+h)]→∞, contradicting the required o(h2) remainder. Thus the model is not QMD at θ.

2.1F3step 1.2

Therefore the nonnegative variable n(θ−X(n)) converges in distribution to the exponential law with rate 1/θ, whose CDF is 0 for t<0 and 1−e−t/θ for t≥0. The limiting CDF is continuous, so [F3] applies at every real t.

3.1F4step 1.2step 2.1algebra∎

For any ε>0 and all n>ε2/θ2, the exact maximum formula gives Pθ{n(θ−X(n))>ε}=(1−ε/(θn))n→0. Thus n(θ−X(n))→P0 by [F4], refuting the stated nonzero root-n fluctuation and confirming the faster n rate in step 2.1.

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