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Uniform payoff convergence does not imply gradient convergence

Statement refuted

For a parameter-dependent random payoff, pointwise weak convergence of its output law, even together with uniform convergence of its expected payoff, implies convergence of derivatives of the expected payoffs.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Weak convergence of probability laws means convergence of integrals against every bounded continuous real function.

[F1]

The derivatives of sine and cosine are cosine and minus sine: (sin⁡x)′=cos⁡x and cos⁡0=1.

[F2]

Probability measures and probability spaces: the one-point space with unit mass is a probability space; Random elements and real random variables, Law or distribution of a random element and The Dirac set function at a point make each deterministic payoff's law the Dirac measure at its value.

[F3]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable and Change of variables for expectation: on the one-point space an integrable deterministic variable has expectation equal to its value, and a bounded continuous test function integrates against an output law as the expectation of that test function of the output.

Counterexample

Given: Use a one-point probability space, so each payoff below is deterministic and its law is a Dirac probability measure.

1.1givenF2F3algebra

On the one-point probability space, for n≥1 put Yn(θ)=n−1sin⁡(n2θ) and let Y(θ)=0. By [F2], their laws are δYn(θ) and δ0. For every θ, ∣Yn(θ)−Y(θ)∣≤1/n, so their expectations converge uniformly to zero. For every bounded continuous ψ, [F3] gives ∫ψ dδYn(θ)=ψ(Yn(θ))→ψ(0)=∫ψ dδ0; hence the output laws converge weakly at every fixed θ.

2.1F1step 1.1algebra∎

The expected payoff functions are Jn(θ)=Yn(θ) and J(θ)=0. By [F1], Jn′(0)=n−1n2cos⁡0=n, whereas J′(0)=0. Thus the derivatives do not converge, despite the stronger uniform convergence of the expected payoffs.

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