How statement and proof provenance work
The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.
- Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
- AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
- AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.
These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.
Posterior credibility does not ensure nominal frequentist coverage
Example
Take a uniform prior on and one Bernoulli observation . The equal-tailed central 95% posterior interval has posterior mass after either possible observation, but its frequentist coverage at is zero.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The prior density is on , the sampling probabilities are and , and a frequentist coverage probability at fixed is .
A posterior credible set has posterior probability at least its stated level. Posterior credible set
The equal-tailed quantile interval has posterior probability at least . Equal-tailed posterior quantile intervals are credible
Verification
Given: The hypotheses in the Example and Facts & Assumptions.
The joint density/mass is at and at . Its marginal masses are and . Therefore the posterior densities are and ; each conditional law integrates to one and satisfies the defining conditioning identity.
Their CDFs on are and . Hence the central 95% intervals are and . Each has posterior mass , also in accordance with [F1, F2].
For fixed true , because . Also because . Thus lies below the lower endpoint of both possible intervals, so , not . This verifies that posterior credibility is not a frequentist coverage guarantee.
Depends on
Used by
Nothing in the library uses this result yet.
Dependency tree · two levels
9 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- Andrew Gelman et al., Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed., §2.5 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Alicia A. Johnson, Miles Q. Ott, and Mine Dogucu, Bayes Rules!, Chapter 8 §8.1 (standard reference, not scraped)