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ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
How statement and proof provenance work

The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.

  • Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
  • AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
  • AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.

These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.

Posterior credibility does not ensure nominal frequentist coverage

Example

Take a uniform prior on θ∈(0,1) and one Bernoulli observation Y∼Bernoulli⁡(θ). The equal-tailed central 95% posterior interval has posterior mass 0.95 after either possible observation, but its frequentist coverage at θ=0.005 is zero.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The prior density is 1 on (0,1), the sampling probabilities are Pθ(Y=1)=θ and Pθ(Y=0)=1−θ, and a frequentist coverage probability at fixed θ is Pθ{θ∈C(Y)}.

[F1]

A posterior credible set has posterior probability at least its stated level. Posterior credible set

[F2]

The equal-tailed quantile interval has posterior probability at least 1−α. Equal-tailed posterior quantile intervals are credible

Verification

Given: The hypotheses in the Example and Facts & Assumptions.

1.1givenalgebra

The joint density/mass is 1⋅θ at Y=1 and 1⋅(1−θ) at Y=0. Its marginal masses are ∫01θdθ=1/2 and ∫01(1−θ)dθ=1/2. Therefore the posterior densities are p(θ∣Y=1)=2θ and p(θ∣Y=0)=2(1−θ); each conditional law integrates to one and satisfies the defining conditioning identity.

1.2givenF1F2algebra

Their CDFs on [0,1] are F1(x)=x2 and F0(x)=1−(1−x)2. Hence the central 95% intervals are C(1)=[0.025,0.975] and C(0)=[1−0.975,1−0.025]. Each has posterior mass 0.975−0.025=0.95, also in accordance with [F1, F2].

2.1givenstep 1.2algebra∎

For fixed true θ0=0.005, 0.025>0.005 because 0.025>0.0052. Also 1−0.975>0.005 because 0.975<0.9952. Thus θ0 lies below the lower endpoint of both possible intervals, so Pθ0{θ0∈C(Y)}=0, not 0.95. This verifies that posterior credibility is not a frequentist coverage guarantee.

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