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How statement and proof provenance work

The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.

  • Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
  • AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
  • AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.

These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.

An unobserved unit prevents universal unbiased estimation

Example

Let U={1,2} and let the design always sample s={1}. Compare the fixed populations y=(0,0) and y′=(0,1). The second unit has π2=0; both populations produce the same observed record ({1},0), while their totals are 0 and 1. This is the two-unit instance of A zero inclusion probability prevents total identification and universal unbiased estimation.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The fixed two-unit population set U={1,2}, the degenerate design supported only on {1}, and the two value functions shown above.

[F1]

Finite populations and sampling designs: A design law specifies the sample support, inclusion probabilities, observed record, and total while holding population values fixed.

[F2]

A zero inclusion probability prevents total identification and universal unbiased estimation: A zero first-order inclusion probability gives equal observed laws for some populations with different totals and rules out an estimator unbiased for all finite populations.

[F3]

Statistics and estimators: An estimator is a statistic, hence a function of the observed record with the specified real target.

[F4]

Unbiased estimators and UMVU estimators: An estimator is unbiased when its expectation equals its estimand at every parameter value.

Verification

1.1givenF1algebra

The only supported sample is {1}, so π2=0. Under both y and y′, the record is ({1},0), but T(y)=0 and T(y′)=1.

2.1F1F2F3F4step 1.1algebra∎

Any observed-record estimator has one value d at ({1},0), so its design expectation is d under both populations. It cannot equal both totals 0 and 1. This explicit calculation verifies the instance asserted by [F2], using the unbiasedness definition [F4].

Depends on

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