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Fixed-time Aalen–Johansen outputs are well-defined statistics

Statement

Fix n≥1, finite K, and t≥0, and let X=([0,∞)×{0,1,…,K})n carry its Borel sigma-algebra as a Euclidean subspace, where status 0 denotes censoring and status k denotes an observed cause-k event. Let E be any statistical experiment with sample space (X,B(X)). Equip RK+1 with its Borel sigma-algebra. The output vector of Aalen–Johansen cumulative-incidence estimator at horizon t is a measurable map X→RK+1 and hence a statistic in E. Every event-time denominator Y(u) is positive.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The statistical experiment, sample space, and fixed horizon in the Statement, with the procedure of Aalen–Johansen cumulative-incidence estimator.

[F1]

Aalen–Johansen cumulative-incidence estimator: Y(u)=∑i1{Ui≥u}, and ΔNk(u)=∑i1{Ui=u,δi=1,Diobs=k}; updates use only event times with ΔN(u)>0.

[F2]

Statistics and estimators: a statistic is a measurable map from the observation space to a measurable target space; an estimator is a statistic with the estimand's target space.

[F3]

A measurable function between measurable spaces: measurability means that the preimage of every target measurable set is measurable.

[F4]

Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: finite sums and products of real measurable functions are measurable wherever defined.

Proof

1.1F1F3F4given

For every i,j, the predicates Ui≤t, Ui≤Uj, Ui=Uj, and each finite-valued cause-status predicate define Borel subsets of X: the coordinate-comparison sets are closed in the Euclidean sample space, and status slices are Borel in the finite status space. Hence Y(Ui) and ΔNk(Ui) are finite sums of measurable indicators by [F1] and [F4]. If i is an event at u=Ui, then its indicator is included in Y(u) and in ΔN(u), so Y(u)≥ΔN(u)≥1.

2.1F1F2F3F4step 1.1algebra∎

For each event record the ratio ΔNk(Ui)/Y(Ui) has finite range, since both counts lie in {0,…,n} and the denominator is in {1,…,n}; each level set is a finite union of Borel count-level sets, so the ratio is measurable. The indicator selecting the first record at each distinct event time and the ordering of the at most n event times are also determined by finitely many Borel equalities and inequalities. The updates in [F1] therefore form finite sums and products of measurable functions; [F4] makes every coordinate of the output vector measurable. By [F2] and [F3], this vector is a statistic, and step 1.1 proves its denominators are positive.

Depends on

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Nothing in the library uses this result yet.

Cited to discharge well-definedness by Aalen–Johansen cumulative-incidence estimator.

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