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Posterior quantiles stabilize under scalar weak convergence
Statement
Let be data-indexed probability kernels on , let be a fixed law with continuous CDF , and suppose in probability. Fix and let , using the canonical rational embedding. Assume is strictly increasing on some open interval containing . Define by the same convention. Then in probability. The local strict-increase hypothesis permits CDFs, such as norms of nonnegative random elements, that are constant on part of .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The data-indexed kernels, fixed , and in the Statement; .
Posterior quantiles are measurable and bracket their probability level: the lower quantile is the real infimum of and its CDF satisfies .
Continuity from above when one set has finite measure: probabilities of decreasing measurable sets with finite first measure converge to the probability of their intersection.
The limiting CDF is continuous on and strictly increasing on an open interval containing .
Proof
Fix and . Choose . The piecewise-linear ramps that fall from to on and on bound below and above. Multiplying each ramp by makes its sup norm and Lipschitz constant at most . Comparing the lower and upper ramps under with their integrals under gives . By [A1], ; [F2] then gives as . First choose small and then let ; this proves in probability.
Write as in [F1]. Since [A1] makes continuous, the CDF bracket in [F1] gives . For every sufficiently small , strict increase near then gives . Step 1.1 at these two points implies, with probability tending to one, . By monotonicity, no rational at or below is in the defining set for , while every rational above belongs to it. Its infimum therefore lies in . Since arbitrarily small such are available, the quantiles converge in probability.
Depends on
Used by
Dependency tree · two levels
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Sources
- Giné and Nickl, Mathematical Foundations of Infinite-Dimensional Statistical Models, §7.3.4, especially Theorem 7.3.23 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Castillo and Nickl, Nonparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorems in Gaussian white noise, §2.3 (standard reference, not scraped)