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Rational conditional distribution functions produce real regular kernels

Statement

Assume AC. Let X be a real random variable on (Ω,F,P), and GF. Rational versions Gq and NG as in Simultaneous rational conditional distribution function versions determine a probability kernel K:(Ω,G)(R,B(R)) with

K(ω,(,x])=infqQ, q>xGq(ω)(ωN),K(ω,)=δ0(ωN).

For every Borel A and HG,

HK(ω,A)dP=P(H{XA}).

Thus K is a regular conditional distribution of X, everywhere a probability measure.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement.

[F1]

There are rational conditional versions with simultaneous bounds, monotonicity, tails and rational right limits; the same lemma locally establishes monotone convergence and bounded decreasing convergence from the repaired simple-integral foundation. Simultaneous rational conditional distribution function versions.

[F2]

Under countable choice, a nondecreasing right-continuous function with tails zero and one has a Borel probability with the prescribed closed-half-line values. Only this existence clause is used; uniqueness is proved locally below. Probability laws correspond to distribution functions.

[F3]

A lambda-system containing a pi-system contains its generated sigma-algebra. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem.

[F4]

Rational right rays, and therefore their closed-left-ray complements, generate the Borel sets. Seven generating families for the Borel sigma-algebra on the real line.

[F6]

AC supplies the preceding version selection and countable choice for CDF existence; unique specification needs no further choice. The Axiom of Choice.

[F7]

Between any two distinct reals lies a rational. The rationals embed densely in the reals.

[F8]

The rationals admit a fixed enumeration. Q is countably infinite.

Proof

technique · direct
1.1

Use the everywhere good filled data of [F1], writing them again Gq. For fixed ω, put Fω(x)=infqQ,q>xGq(ω). The index set is nonempty by F7 and countable by F8. Its values lie in [0,1], and shrinking it as x increases shows monotonicity. For rational r, monotonicity of the data gives GrFω(r)Gr+1/n for every positive integer n, so the rational right-limit condition gives Fω(r)=Gr. In particular Fω(n)1 and Fω(n)0, and monotonicity gives both real tail limits.

F1F7F8
2.1

If xjx, monotonicity gives a limit LFω(x). For every rational q>x, eventually xj<q, so Fω(xj)Gq(ω) and LGq(ω). Taking the infimum gives LFω(x). In particular the sequence x+1/j proves right continuity. By the existence clause of [F2] there is a Borel probability with CDF Fω. If μ,ν are two such probabilities, the equality class C={A:μ(A)=ν(A)} contains R and every closed half-line, is closed under complements by subtraction from the common finite total one, and is closed under countable disjoint unions by countable additivity. It is a lambda-system containing the closed-half-line pi-system, whose generated sigma-algebra is Borel by [F4]; [F3] gives μ=ν. Thus the probability is locally proved unique and defines K(ω,) without a family choice. On N its CDF is 1{x0}, so the same uniqueness identifies it with δ0.

step 1.1F2F3F4F6
3.1

For fixed real x, [F5] makes Fω(x) a G-measurable countable infimum. Using F7 and the fixed enumeration in F8, choose recursively the first enumerated rational q1(x,x+1) and then the first qj+1(x,min(qj,x+1/(j+1))); thus qjx. Step 2.1 and rational agreement give GqjFω(x). The bounded decreasing-convergence clause locally proved in [F1], applied on H, gives HFω(x)dP=limjHGqjdP=limjP(H{Xqj})=P(H{Xx}). The last indicator limit includes the point X=x.

step 1.1step 2.1F1F5F7F8
4.1

Let D be the Borel sets A for which ωK(ω,A) is G-measurable and the stated identity holds for every HG. It contains R. Complements use 1K(ω,A) and subtraction from the finite total P(H). For pairwise disjoint AjD, countable additivity of each section gives the union evaluation as the increasing limit of finite partial sums. This is measurable by [F5], and the locally proved monotone convergence in [F1] gives the event identity. Hence D is a lambda-system containing the closed-half-line pi-system from step 3.1. By [F3] and [F4] it contains every Borel set. The measurable evaluations and probability sections prove both kernel axioms and the full conditional identity.

step 2.1step 3.1F1F3F4F5

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