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A standard-Borel label has a conditional kernel over an arbitrary measurable instance space
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let be a nonempty measurable space, let be a nonempty standard Borel space, and let be a probability measure on . Put . There exists an everywhere probability kernel such that
No standard-Borel, countable-generation, or completeness hypothesis is imposed on the instance space.
Statement references
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, the nonempty measurable instance space, the nonempty standard Borel label space, and the joint law in the Statement.
AC is assumed for the regular-conditional-distribution existence supplier. The Axiom of Choice
Under AC, a measurable random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra; all sections are probability measures everywhere, with no completeness or countable-generation assumption on the conditioning sigma-algebra. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
A regular conditional distribution of given is a probability kernel from whose evaluations satisfy for every and . In particular every evaluation is -measurable everywhere and every section is a probability measure. Regular conditional distribution, Measure kernel and probability kernel
Product sigma-algebras are generated by measurable rectangles; coordinate projections are measurable. A map is measurable when preimages of all target measurable sets are measurable, and this criterion is preserved by composition. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates, A measurable function between measurable spaces
Between two unequal real numbers there is a rational number. Both and are dense in , and every nonempty open subset of is uncountable
If a random element has law and is nonnegative real-valued measurable, then . Change of variables for expectation
Restricting a nonnegative measurable function to a measurable set and setting it to zero elsewhere preserves measurability. Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral
Proof
Work on with sigma-algebra and probability . Let and . These projections are measurable by [F3], and has law . The family is a sigma-algebra, since inverse images preserve the full set, complements and countable unions; it is contained in and is exactly . Apply [F1] to the label coordinate given this exact, uncompleted , obtaining a kernel as in [F2].
Fix one and define by . As a map into it is measurable: for every , , and step 1.1 describes every set of in this form. Also for every .
Every -measurable real function is constant on each -fiber. Indeed, if but , choose a rational strictly between these values by [F4]. The measurable set equals for some by step 1.1, and so cannot contain exactly one of , a contradiction. Reversing the two points rules out the other inequality. Applying this to separately for each gives for every and every . These are pointwise identities, with no event-dependent null sets.
Define . Every is a probability measure by [F2]. For fixed , the evaluation is the composition of the -measurable evaluation of with the measurable map from step 2.1, so it is -measurable by [F3]. Thus is an everywhere probability kernel, and step 3.1 gives for every .
Fix and . The real function is measurable, nonnegative and bounded by one by [F6] and step 4.1. Apply [F5] and then [F2] to obtain . Since were arbitrary, this proves the Statement on the original arbitrary measurable instance space.
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- Standard Borel spaces
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- Regular conditional distribution
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- A measurable function between measurable spaces
- Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
- Both $\mathbb{Q}$ and $\mathbb{R} \setminus \mathbb{Q}$ are dense in $\mathbb{R}$, and every nonempty open subset of $\mathbb{R}$ is uncountable
- Change of variables for expectation
- Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral
Used by
- Bayes predictors and excess risk Definition
Dependency tree · two levels
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Sources
- Olav Kallenberg, Foundations of Modern Probability, 2nd ed., Theorem 6.3 (conditional distribution) (standard reference, not scraped)