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A standard-Borel label has a conditional kernel over an arbitrary measurable instance space

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let (X,ΣX) be a nonempty measurable space, let (Y,ΣY) be a nonempty standard Borel space, and let P be a probability measure on (X×Y,ΣX⊗ΣY). Put PX(C)=P(C×Y). There exists an everywhere probability kernel K:(X,ΣX)→(Y,ΣY) such that

P(C×A)=∫CK(x,A) PX(dx)(C∈ΣX, A∈ΣY).

No standard-Borel, countable-generation, or completeness hypothesis is imposed on the instance space.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, the nonempty measurable instance space, the nonempty standard Borel label space, and the joint law P in the Statement.

[A1]

AC is assumed for the regular-conditional-distribution existence supplier. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

Under AC, a measurable random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra; all sections are probability measures everywhere, with no completeness or countable-generation assumption on the conditioning sigma-algebra. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets

[F2]

A regular conditional distribution L of Y given G is a probability kernel from (Ω,G) whose evaluations satisfy ∫BL(ω,A)P(dω)=P(B∩{Y∈A}) for every B∈G and A∈ΣY. In particular every evaluation is G-measurable everywhere and every section is a probability measure. Regular conditional distribution, Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F3]

Product sigma-algebras are generated by measurable rectangles; coordinate projections are measurable. A map is measurable when preimages of all target measurable sets are measurable, and this criterion is preserved by composition. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates, A measurable function between measurable spaces

[F4]

Between two unequal real numbers there is a rational number. Both Q and R∖Q are dense in R, and every nonempty open subset of R is uncountable

[F5]

If a random element X has law PX and g is nonnegative real-valued measurable, then ∫g(X(ω))P(dω)=∫g(x)PX(dx). Change of variables for expectation

[F6]

Restricting a nonnegative measurable function to a measurable set and setting it to zero elsewhere preserves measurability. Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral

Proof

1.1givenA1F1F2F3construct

Work on Ω=X×Y with sigma-algebra F=ΣX⊗ΣY and probability P. Let X(x,y)=x and Y(x,y)=y. These projections are measurable by [F3], and X has law PX. The family G:={X−1(C):C∈ΣX} is a sigma-algebra, since inverse images preserve the full set, complements and countable unions; it is contained in F and is exactly σ(X). Apply [F1] to the label coordinate Y given this exact, uncompleted G, obtaining a kernel L as in [F2].

2.1givenF3step 1.1chooseconstruct

Fix one y0∈Y and define s:X→Ω by s(x)=(x,y0). As a map into (Ω,G) it is measurable: for every C∈ΣX, s−1(X−1(C))=C, and step 1.1 describes every set of G in this form. Also X(s(x))=x for every x.

3.1F2F4step 1.1step 2.1cases

Every G-measurable real function v is constant on each X-fiber. Indeed, if X(ω)=X(ω′) but v(ω)<v(ω′), choose a rational r strictly between these values by [F4]. The measurable set {v≤r} equals X−1(C) for some C∈ΣX by step 1.1, and so cannot contain exactly one of ω,ω′, a contradiction. Reversing the two points rules out the other inequality. Applying this to v(ω)=L(ω,A)∈[0,1] separately for each A∈ΣY gives L(ω,A)=L(s(X(ω)),A) for every ω and every A. These are pointwise identities, with no event-dependent null sets.

4.1F2F3step 2.1step 3.1construct

Define K(x,A):=L(s(x),A). Every K(x,⋅) is a probability measure by [F2]. For fixed A, the evaluation is the composition of the G-measurable evaluation of L with the measurable map s from step 2.1, so it is ΣX-measurable by [F3]. Thus K is an everywhere probability kernel, and step 3.1 gives K(X(ω),A)=L(ω,A) for every ω,A.

5.1F2F5F6step 1.1step 4.1algebra∎

Fix C∈ΣX and A∈ΣY. The real function g(x)=1C(x)K(x,A) is measurable, nonnegative and bounded by one by [F6] and step 4.1. Apply [F5] and then [F2] to obtain ∫CK(x,A)PX(dx)=∫X−1(C)K(X(ω),A)P(dω)=∫X−1(C)L(ω,A)P(dω)=P(X−1(C)∩Y−1(A))=P(C×A). Since C,A were arbitrary, this proves the Statement on the original arbitrary measurable instance space.

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