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Closed Gaussian forward marginal and conditioned posterior

Statement

Assume AC and the finite Gaussian forward chain with dimension d≥1, horizon T≥1, and schedule 0<βt<1 from the preceding definition. For each x0∈Rd and 1≤t≤T, q(xt∣x0)=Nd ⁣(αˉt x0,(1−αˉt)Id). For every 2≤t≤T, the conditional law given both endpoints is q(xt−1∣xt,x0)=Nd ⁣(αˉt−1βt1−αˉtx0+αt(1−αˉt−1)1−αˉtxt, β~tId),β~t=βt(1−αˉt−1)1−αˉt>0. The formula for q(xt−1∣xt,x0) is only asserted for t≥2; at t=1 the conditioning on x0 makes q(x0∣x1,x0) a point mass, not a Lebesgue density. The Gaussian conditional above does not assert that the unconditional reverse law q(xt−1∣xt) is Gaussian.

Statement references

Closed Gaussian forward marginal, posterior mean, and posterior variance: Ho, Jain, and Abbeel, Eqs. (4), (6), and (7).

Forward Gaussian composition and conditioned posterior: Prince, Chapter 18, “The diffusion kernel” and “The tractable conditional”.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, a fixed x0∈Rd, finite d,T≥1, and 0<βt<1 for every t.

[A1]

AC is assumed by the Gaussian-stack construction and the multivariate-normal conditional-law theorem. The Axiom of Choice.

[F1]

The forward path density factors into normalized transition densities ϕd,βs(xs;αsxs−1), with αs=1−βs and αˉs=∏r=1sαr. Finite Gaussian forward chain and Gaussian reverse model.

[F2]

A multivariate normal law is characterized by its scalar projection laws and has the stated mean and covariance. Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance.

[F3]

A finite stack of mutually independent Gaussian vectors is jointly multivariate normal, even when a covariance is singular. A finite stack of independent Gaussian vectors is jointly Gaussian.

[F4]

If (X,Y) is jointly Gaussian with positive-semidefinite block covariance and the observed block covariance B is positive definite, then its conditional law has mean a+CB−1(y−b) and covariance A−CB−1CT. Conditional law of a jointly Gaussian block with positive-definite observed covariance.

Proof

technique · standardize each transition to an independent Gaussian innovation, compute its finite affine sum, and apply the positive-definite-observation conditional-law formula to adjacent states

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F2givenalgebra

Under the forward path law with fixed x0, for each s put ξs=(Xs−αsXs−1)/βs. Changing variables xs=αsxs−1+βsz in the last transition density in [F1] gives the conditional density ϕd,1(z;0), independent of the past. Thus for Borel past events A and Borel B⊆Rd, P(X1:s−1∈A,ξs∈B)=P(X1:s−1∈A)Nd(0,Id)(B). Each ξs is standard Gaussian and independent of the previous path; since earlier innovations are measurable functions of that path, ξ1,…,ξt are mutually independent for every t.

2.1A1F1F2F3givenstep 1.1algebra

Iterating Xt=αtXt−1+βtξt gives Xt=αˉtx0+∑s=1tβs∏r=s+1tαr ξs. By step 1.1 and [F3], the finite innovation stack is jointly Gaussian. Thus each scalar projection of Xt is normal with mean u⋅αˉtx0 and, by independence, variance uT(∑s=1tβs∏r=s+1tαrId)u; [F2] identifies its law as multivariate normal with that mean and covariance. Since βs∏r=s+1tαr=∏r=s+1tαr−∏r=stαr, the covariance sum telescopes to (1−αˉt)Id.

3.1A1F1F2F3step 1.1step 2.1algebra

Fix t≥2. By step 2.1, Xt−1 is Gaussian, and by step 1.1, ξt is independent of the past and standard Gaussian. The finite-stack result [F3] makes (Xt−1,ξt) jointly Gaussian. For any u,v∈Rd, the projection of (Xt−1,Xt) is (u+αtv)⋅Xt−1+βtv⋅ξt, a scalar projection of that Gaussian stack; hence [F2] makes the pair jointly Gaussian. Its means are αˉt−1x0 and αˉtx0, and its covariance blocks are A=(1−αˉt−1)Id, C=αt(1−αˉt−1)Id, and B=(1−αˉt)Id. The full block covariance is positive semidefinite because each of its quadratic forms is the variance of a scalar projection of (Xt−1,Xt). Since 0<αs<1, we have 0<αˉt<1, so B is positive definite.

4.1A1F1F4step 3.1algebra∎

Applying [F4] with these blocks gives conditional covariance A−CB−1CT=((1−αˉt−1)−αt(1−αˉt−1)21−αˉt)Id=βt(1−αˉt−1)1−αˉtId and conditional mean αˉt−1x0+αt(1−αˉt−1)1−αˉt(xt−αˉtx0)=αˉt−1βt1−αˉtx0+αt(1−αˉt−1)1−αˉtxt. For t≥2, αˉt−1<1 and βt>0, so β~t>0. This is the asserted conditional law; no density for the degenerate t=1 conditional was used.

Source notes

Joint Gaussian conditional law and its positive-definite observed covariance hypothesis: Conditional law of a jointly Gaussian block with positive-definite observed covariance.

Finite independent Gaussian stack: A finite stack of independent Gaussian vectors is jointly Gaussian.

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Sources