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A local KL expansion and square-integrable log-Lipschitz envelope give misspecified iid LAN

Statement

Let X1,X2,… be IID from P0 on a measurable space, and let Θ⊂Rd be open, d≥1. Suppose a sigma-finite measure μ and jointly measurable finite-valued densities p0,pθ are supplied, with P0(dx)=p0(x)μ(dx), Pθ(dx)=pθ(x)μ(dx), and pθ∗>0 P0-almost surely. Define the directional contrast K(θ)=E0log⁡p0(X)pθ(X). Assume K is finite near an interior point θ∗, θ∗ is a finite minimizer of K, and, for t→0, E0log⁡pθ∗(X)pθ∗+t(X)=12tTVt+o(∥t∥22) for a fixed symmetric positive-definite matrix V. Assume also that a measurable random vector s(X)∈Rd satisfies log⁡pθ∗+t(X)−log⁡pθ∗(X)−tTs(X)∥t∥2⟶0 in P0-probability as t→0 through nonzero vectors, and that on a neighbourhood U of θ∗ there is a common P0-almost-sure bound ∣log⁡pθ1(X)pθ2(X)∣≤M(X)∥θ1−θ2∥2(θ1,θ2∈U), where M≥0 and E0M2<∞. Then E0s=0 and I=E0[ssT] is finite. With Sn=n−1/2∑i=1ns(Xi) and Δn=V−1Sn, for every compact H⊂Rd, sup⁡h∈H∣∑i=1nlog⁡pθ∗+h/n(Xi)pθ∗(Xi)−hTSn+12hTVh∣=oP0(1). Suprema and convergence in probability use measurable versions obtained by setting the log-ratio class to zero off its common measurable full set. In particular Δn=OP0(1). No equality between I and V is assumed; under misspecification they generally differ.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The supplied dominated iid density model, finite interior KL minimizer, differentiability in P0-probability, square-integrable local log-Lipschitz envelope, and positive-definite second-order contrast expansion in the Statement.

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families: The observations have one common law and are mutually independent.

[F2]

Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors: oP(1) means convergence in probability to zero, and OP(1) means boundedness in probability in finite-dimensional Euclidean norm.

[F3]

A square-integrable Lipschitz envelope controls a local empirical process: For an iid sample and a pointwise Lipschitz class with square-integrable envelope M, the local centered-process supremum is at most Cdr∥M∥2 in expectation, and its modulus over parameter pairs at distance at most ε is at most Cdεlog⁡(er/ε)∥M∥2 in expectation.

Proof

Given: The objects and hypotheses in the Statement. Write Pnf=n−1∑i=1nf(Xi) and Gnf=n(Pn−P0)f.

1.1F1F3givenalgebra

Define the log-ratio class to be zero off the common measurable full set of the log-Lipschitz bound, as in [F3]; this changes no integral or almost-sure sample path and makes its suprema measurable. On that full set put ft=log⁡(pθ∗+t/pθ∗) and rt=ft−tTs. Along every coordinate direction ej, faej/a→sj in P0-probability as a→0, while the envelope gives ∣faej/a∣≤M. Dominated convergence along almost-surely convergent subsequences therefore gives E0sj=lim⁡a→0E0faej/a=0, since the contrast expansion makes the last numerator O(a2). The same subsequence argument applied to the directional difference quotients and the common envelope gives ∣sj∣≤M almost surely for every coordinate, hence ∥s∥2≤dM and E0∥s∥22<∞.

1.2givenalgebra

The contrast expansion is uniform after the local substitution: for fixed R, sup⁡∥h∥2≤R∣nE0fh/n+12hTVh∣⟶0, because the remainder divided by ∥t∥22 tends to zero uniformly over 0<∥t∥2≤R/n.

2.1F1F2F3step 1.1givenchoosealgebra

Differentiability in probability says rt/∥t∥2→0 in P0-probability. The bound ∣rt∣/∥t∥2≤M+∥s∥2≤(1+d)M and E0M2<∞ imply E0rt2=o(∥t∥22) by dominated convergence along every sequence t→0. Also ∣rt−ru∣≤L∥t−u∥2 on the common full set, where L=(1+d)M. Fix R>0 and 0<ε≤R, and choose a finite ε-net Hε of the radius-R ball. For each fixed h∈Hε, independence gives E0∣n(Pn−P0)rh/n∣2=n Var⁡0(rh/n)≤nE0rh/n2⟶0. Because the net is finite, the maximum of these centered sums tends to zero in probability. For any h in the ball choose hε∈Hε with ∥h−hε∥2≤ε. The modulus bound [F3], applied to rt with envelope L on radius R/n and distance ε/n, gives E0sup⁡∥h∥2,∥h′∥2≤R∥h−h′∥2≤ε∣n(Pn−P0)(rh/n−rh′/n)∣≤Cd∥L∥L2(P0)εlog⁡(eR/ε). For fixed ε, the finite-net maximum vanishes as n→∞; Markov's inequality bounds the remaining modulus probability by a constant times εlog⁡(eR/ε), which tends to zero as ε↓0. Therefore sup⁡∥h∥2≤R∣n(Pn−P0)rh/n∣=oP0(1).

3.1step 1.1step 2.1step 1.2algebra

For ∥h∥2≤R, decompose ∑i=1nfh/n(Xi)=nE0fh/n+hTSn+n(Pn−P0)rh/n, where E0s=0 from step 1.1. Step 2.1 controls the last term uniformly, and step 1.2 gives the uniform quadratic term. Therefore the displayed LAN remainder is oP0(1) uniformly on every compact H.

4.1F1F2step 1.1algebra∎

Independence, E0s=0, and E0∥s∥22<∞ give E0∥Sn∥22=E0∥s∥22 for every n. Since R21{∥Sn∥2>R}≤∥Sn∥22, P0(∥Sn∥2>R)≤E0∥s∥22/R2, so (Sn) is bounded in probability. Multiplication by the fixed matrix V−1 preserves boundedness because ∥V−1Sn∥2≤∥V−1∥ ∥Sn∥2. Thus Δn=OP0(1) by [F2], completing the LAN assertion.

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