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All-plus data have no finite Bernoulli-spin field MLE
Example
Let , , and . For a finite field , the Gibbs probabilities are For a sample of spins all equal to , the log likelihood is It is strictly increasing at every finite , so the likelihood has no finite maximizer. The empirical statistic mean is , a boundary point of .
Example references
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite two-state Gibbs family and the hypothetical realized sample for all .
The sample is a fixed finite IID-model outcome; it is a mathematical example, not an empirical report.
Finite exponential Gibbs family for inverse inference: the normalized mass at field is proportional to .
Exact finite-MLE criterion for a minimal finite exponential Gibbs family: in a minimal finite exponential family, a finite IID MLE exists exactly when the empirical statistic mean lies in the relative interior of the convex support, and is unique when it exists.
The exponential function is smooth and : is differentiable on with derivative .
The natural logarithm has derivative 1/x and equals the integral from 1 to x of 1/t: for , is differentiable with derivative .
The chain rule, in one line from Carathéodory: if is differentiable at and is differentiable at , then is differentiable at with : derivatives of scalar compositions obey under the stated differentiability and limit-point hypotheses.
Sums, scalar multiples, products and quotients: , , , and when : derivatives of sums and scalar multiples are respectively the sums and scalar multiples of the derivatives.
The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function: is a bijection and is its inverse, so for real .
Order, continuity, range, and the product, quotient, and reciprocal laws for the natural logarithm: for positive , and ; is strictly increasing on .
The mean value theorem, as the case of Cauchy's: for continuous on with and differentiable on there is with : a real function continuous on , , and differentiable on satisfies for some .
Verification
Given: The finite family and all-plus sample in the Example.
The two statistic values are and , so their affine hull is , the family is minimal, the convex hull is , and the sample mean is , which is not in its interior . Hence [F2] already implies there is no finite MLE.
Let . Both exponential terms and hence are positive by [F7]. For the fixed all-plus IID sample the product likelihood is by [A1, F1]. Applying the positive-product law [F8] repeatedly to these factors, then its quotient law and the inverse identity [F7], gives . Since is strictly increasing, this has exactly the same maximizers as . By [F3] and [F5], the two exponential terms have derivatives and ; [F6] therefore gives . The identity function has derivative directly from its difference quotient. Applying the logarithm derivative [F4] and chain rule [F5] to this derived log likelihood gives for every finite . The derived formula is differentiable on all of , hence continuous there: its increment is its convergent difference quotient times the real increment. For any , [F9] applied on gives for some . Thus is strictly increasing; by [F8] the likelihood also increases. In particular each finite field has a larger likelihood at a greater field, and no finite field maximizes it.
Depends on
Exact finite-MLE criterion for a minimal finite exponential Gibbs family
Finite exponential Gibbs family for inverse inference
The exponential function is smooth and
The natural logarithm has derivative 1/x and equals the integral from 1 to x of 1/t
The chain rule, in one line from Carathéodory: if is differentiable at and is differentiable at , then is differentiable at with
Sums, scalar multiples, products and quotients: , , , and when
The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function
Order, continuity, range, and the product, quotient, and reciprocal laws for the natural logarithm
The mean value theorem, as the case of Cauchy's: for continuous on with and differentiable on there is with