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Grand-response derivatives are covariances

Statement

Let (X,Σ,μ) be a measure space, let w:X→[0,∞) and Xa:X→R (1≤a≤r) be measurable, and let U⊆Rr be open. For θ=(θ1,…,θr), define θ⋅X(x):=∑a=1rθaXa(x). Set Z(θ):=∫wexp⁡(θ⋅X) dμ and assume 0<Z(θ)<∞ on U. Suppose for every compact K⊂U there is an integrable GK≥0 such that weθ⋅X(1+∑a∣Xa∣2)≤GK pointwise for all θ∈K. For the normalized density pθ=weθ⋅X/Z(θ), define EθY:=∫Ypθ dμ when integrable and Cov⁡θ(Xa,Xb):=Eθ[(Xa−EθXa)(Xb−EθXb)]. Then ∂alog⁡Z=EθXa and ∂bEθXa=Cov⁡θ(Xa,Xb). Thus the Hessian of log⁡Z is positive semidefinite. This is a mathematical model identity; it assumes no independence or absence of correlations.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: As stated in the item.

[A1]

(X,Σ,μ) is a measure space; w is finite-valued nonnegative measurable and each Xa is real-valued measurable; U is open, Z is positive finite, and the displayed compact-parameter envelope is integrable.

[F1]

Measure space and integral: measurable integrals and densities use the fixed reference measure μ.

[F2]

Dominated convergence for the measure integral: a measurable pointwise-limit representative of measurable functions dominated by an integrable envelope is integrable, and the limit passes through the integral. On a noncomplete measure space the named representative must be measurable; the canonical measurable representative always exists. The limits used below are measurable by [F7].

[F3]

Proof

Given: The parameterized measure model and its compact-parameter integrable envelopes.

1.1A1F1F2F3F5F6F7

For each fixed parameter, measurable energy/observable coordinates and [F7] make every finite linear combination, exponential weight, weighted first/second moment and parameter difference quotient measurable; their displayed pointwise derivative limits are the same measurable compositions. For a coordinate direction a, the difference quotient of weθ⋅X tends pointwise to wXaeθ⋅X. On a compact neighborhood K′ of θ, the mean-value theorem [F5] bounds its absolute value by w∣Xa∣eη⋅X for an intermediate parameter η∈K′, at most GK′. Dominated convergence [F2] therefore gives ∂aZ=∫wXaeθ⋅Xdμ. Applying the same argument to the first-moment numerator gives ∂b∫wXaeθ⋅Xdμ=∫wXaXbeθ⋅Xdμ; the same envelope controls this quotient because ∣XaXb∣≤1+∑c∣Xc∣2.

2.1A1F1F4step 1.1

Divide the first derivative by Z>0 and use [F4] to obtain ∂alog⁡Z=EθXa. The quotient rule for the normalized first moment gives ∂bEθXa=Eθ(XaXb)−EθXaEθXb, the covariance.

3.1A1step 2.1∎

For any v∈Rr, vT(∇2log⁡Z)v=Eθ[(v⋅X−Eθ(v⋅X))2]≥0. This proves positive semidefiniteness without any independence assumption.

Depends on

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