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CounterexampleConstruction: AI-adaptedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-14
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The Markov property can fail for a larger filtration

Statement

Assume Choice. An IID fair-bit sequence has the constant fair transition kernel relative to its natural filtration, but it need not have that kernel relative to a larger filtration. In particular, revealing X1 at time zero makes the time-zero Markov identity fail.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The IID fair-bit sequence and the two filtrations specified below.

[F1]

An IID sequence with law ν is a Markov chain with constant kernel K(x,A)=ν(A) relative to its natural filtration. (IID sequences as Markov chains with state-independent kernel)

[F2]

The Markov definition is relative to the specified filtration and requires adaptedness. (Time-homogeneous Markov chain with transition kernel)

Counterexample

1.1

Let (Xn) be IID fair bits and [F1] FnX=σ(X0,,Xn). By [F1], X is a Markov chain for this filtration with K(x,{1})=1/2.

F1
1.2

Define a larger filtration by [F2] G0=σ(X0,X1),Gn=σ(X0,,Xn,X1)(n1). Then G0=G1 and Gn=FnX for n1, so (Gn) is increasing; it contains FnX at every time, and X is adapted. Thus it meets the structural requirements in [F2].

F2
2.1

Since X1 is G0-measurable, [F2, step 1.1, step 1.2] P(X1=1G0)=1{X1=1} almost surely. This differs from K(X0,{1})=1/2 on both positive-probability events {X1=0} and {X1=1}. Hence the time-zero identity in [F2] fails for the larger filtration, although it holds naturally. Empty/full target events still give zero/one and do not witness failure. Choice is used only by the conditional-probability classes.

F2step 1.1step 1.2

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