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CounterexampleConstruction: AI-adaptedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-14
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Identical one-time marginals do not determine a Markov chain

Statement

Assume Choice. On S={0,1}, a stationary IID fair-bit chain and a constant fair-bit chain have the same one-time marginal at every time, but have different transition kernels and different two-time laws.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The two fair-bit constructions specified below.

[F1]

An IID sequence with common law ν has the constant-row kernel K(x,A)=ν(A). (IID sequences as Markov chains with state-independent kernel)

[F2]

The identity map gives the deterministic kernel J(x,A)=1A(x). (A deterministic dynamical system as a Markov kernel)

Counterexample

1.1

Let (Xn) be IID with [F1] P(Xn=0)=P(Xn=1)=1/2. By [F1], it is Markov with K(x,{0})=K(x,{1})=12 for both x. Independence gives P(X0=X1)=P(0,0)+P(1,1)=14+14=12.

F1
1.2

Let B be one fair bit and put Yn=B for every n. Then each Yn is [F2] again fair, while [F2] makes Y Markov with identity kernel J. Here P(Y0=Y1)=1. Moreover J(0,{0})=11/2=K(0,{0}), so the kernels differ.

F2
2.1

Thus L(Xn)=L(Yn) for every n, including n=0, [step 1.1, step 1.2] but their displayed two-time event probabilities are 1/2 and 1. This is a concrete failed conclusion: one-time marginals do not determine even a two-time law, much less the kernel or path law. The state space is nonempty and finite; probabilities zero and one appear explicitly. Choice is inherited only from the Markov-chain interfaces used in [F1]--[F2].

step 1.1step 1.2

Depends on

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