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A submartingale need not have increasing sample paths
Statement refuted
Assume AC. A submartingale need not have nondecreasing sample paths. On the equiprobable two-point space , set and for , with trivial and full for .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement refuted.
Nonnegative finite and countable weighted sums of measures are measures. Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures.
A Dirac measure at a specified point is a probability measure. A Dirac set function is a probability measure.
Under AC every integrable input has a measurable integrable conditional version. Conditional expectation as an ae class.
A known integrable variable conditions to itself; an independent one conditions to its mean. Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable.
AC supplies the inherited conditional-expectation existence and any stated choice of versions. The Axiom of Choice.
Counterexample
The measure is a measure of total mass one. The displayed filtration is increasing. All are adapted and bounded by one, hence integrable. On the only two events of , the zero function has the same integrals as , since . It is therefore its conditional version. At later times is known, so . Thus is a martingale and hence a submartingale Martingale submartingale and supermartingale.
On the measurable atom , whose probability is , one has . Any exceptional set outside which paths are nondecreasing must contain this atom and therefore cannot have probability zero. This refutes even almost-sure nondecreasing paths. AC is inherited from the CE class convention; the finite averages supply the displayed versions explicitly.
Depends on
- Martingale submartingale and supermartingale
- Conditional expectation as an ae class
- Conditional expectation is unique almost surely
- Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable
- Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures
- A Dirac set function is a probability measure
- The Axiom of Choice
Used by
Nothing in the library uses this result yet.
Dependency tree · two levels
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Sources
- Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, fifth edition (standard reference, not scraped)