Alphabeta Math
CounterexampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)
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A submartingale need not have increasing sample paths

Statement refuted

Assume AC. A submartingale need not have nondecreasing sample paths. On the equiprobable two-point space Ω={1,1}, set X0=0 and Xn(e)=e for n1, with F0 trivial and Fn full for n1.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement refuted.

[F1]

Nonnegative finite and countable weighted sums of measures are measures. Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures.

[F2]

A Dirac measure at a specified point is a probability measure. A Dirac set function is a probability measure.

[F3]

Under AC every integrable input has a measurable integrable conditional version. Conditional expectation as an ae class.

[F4]

A known integrable variable conditions to itself; an independent one conditions to its mean. Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable.

[F5]

AC supplies the inherited conditional-expectation existence and any stated choice of versions. The Axiom of Choice.

Counterexample

technique · direct
1.1

The measure P=12δ1+12δ1 is a measure of total mass one. The displayed filtration is increasing. All Xn are adapted and bounded by one, hence integrable. On the only two events of F0, the zero function has the same integrals as X1, since EX1=(1+1)/2=0. It is therefore its conditional version. At later times Xn+1=Xn is known, so E[Xn+1Fn]=Xn. Thus X is a martingale and hence a submartingale Martingale submartingale and supermartingale.

F1F2F3F4
2.1

On the measurable atom {1}, whose probability is 1/2, one has X1=1<0=X0. Any exceptional set outside which paths are nondecreasing must contain this atom and therefore cannot have probability zero. This refutes even almost-sure nondecreasing paths. AC is inherited from the CE class convention; the finite averages supply the displayed versions explicitly.

F5step 1.1

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