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Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable

Statement

Assume AC for existence. For real X∈L1(P), if X is G-measurable, then E[X∣G]=X. If P({X∈B}∩A)=P(X∈B)P(A) for every real Borel B and A∈G, then E[X∣G]=EX almost surely.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, real integrable X and sub-sigma-algebra G; separately either X is G-measurable or its Borel events satisfy the displayed independence identity.

[F1]

Conditional classes are characterized by measurable integrable versions with all event identities. (Conditional expectation as an ae class)

[F2]
[F3]

Nonnegative Borel functions admit increasing Borel simple approximations. (Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions)

[F4]

Increasing nonnegative simple limits pass through integrals. (Monotone convergence for the integral)

[F5]

Finite linear combinations and differences of integrable functions pass through the integral. (The Lebesgue integral is linear on L1(μ))

Proof

technique · direct
1.1F1F2

If X is G-measurable it itself meets every condition for a version: integrability is assumed and every event equality is ∫AX=∫AX. Hence uniqueness gives the first identity.

1.2givenF3F4F5

Fix A∈G under the independence hypothesis. For h=1B, E[h(X)1A]=E[h(X)]P(A) is exactly that hypothesis. For nonnegative Borel simple h=∑j=1mcj1Bj, multiplication by cj and addition give the same equality. For a nonnegative Borel h with E[h(X)]<∞, compose the increasing Borel simple approximations hm↑h from [F3] with X. Then E[hm(X)]↑E[h(X)]<∞ and E[hm(X)1A]↑E[h(X)1A] by [F4]. Passing to the limit in the finite equalities E[hm(X)1A]=P(A)E[hm(X)] gives E[h(X)1A]=P(A)E[h(X)]. Every expectation here is finite, so multiplication by P(A)=0 is also defined.

2.1step 1.2F1F2F5∎

Apply step 1.2 to h(t)=t+ and h(t)=t−. Their expectations are finite because X∈L1, so subtracting yields ∫AX=EX P(A). The constant EX is finite, G-measurable and integrable, and its integral on A is EX P(A). Since A was arbitrary, [F1]–[F2] identify it with E[X∣G].

Source notes

Durrett Examples 4.1.3–4.1.4, printed pp.207–208; van der Vaart Examples 1.4–1.5, printed p.2. The rectangle hypothesis is extended by simple approximation explicitly, without importing a general factorization theorem.

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