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TheoremStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-10
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Conditional expectation is the l2 orthogonal projection

Statement

Assume AC. Real L2(Ω,G,P∣G) embeds isometrically as a closed subspace of real L2(Ω,F,P). For X∈L2(P), U=E[X∣G] is its orthogonal projection onto this subspace. It uniquely minimizes E[(X−Z)2] over Z∈L2(G) as an almost-sure class.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, a probability space, a sub-sigma-algebra G, and real X∈L2(P).

[F1]

The conditional mean of an L2 input belongs to L2(G). (Conditional lp contraction)

[F2]

Under countable choice L2 on every measure space is complete. (Riesz-Fischer completeness of Lp for 1≤p≤∞)

[F3]

AC supplies countable choice for Riesz–Fischer, including representatives, and the inherited RN existence choices. (The Axiom of Choice)

[F4]

L2 products are integrable, with E∣AB∣≤∥A∥2∥B∥2. (Cauchy-Schwarz inequality for L2)

[F5]

A G-measurable finite factor can be taken out whenever the input and its product are integrable. (Taking out what is known)

[F6]

Conditional expectation fixes G-measurable integrable variables. (Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable)

[F7]

Conditional expectation preserves ordinary expectation. (Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation)

Proof

technique · direct
1.1F2F3

The inclusion sends the class of a G-measurable function to its ambient class. Two such functions agree almost surely for the restricted measure exactly when they do for P; their squared integrals are identical. Thus inclusion is well defined, injective, linear and isometric. If a sequence in its image converges in ambient L2, its preimages are Cauchy, converge by [F2] under [F3], and their images converge to the same ambient limit by the isometry and uniqueness of metric limits. Hence the image is closed.

1.2F1F4F5F7

By [F1], U∈L2(G). Fix Z∈L2(G). Both ZX and ZU are integrable by [F4]. Taking-out [F5] gives E[ZX∣G]=ZU. Taking ordinary expectations by [F7] yields E[ZX]=E[ZU], hence E[Z(X−U)]=0. This establishes orthogonality for every Z directly, and in particular for bounded G-measurable tests, without a density argument.

2.1step 1.1step 1.2F4F6∎

For every Z∈L2(G), expand X−Z=(X−U)+(U−Z). All products are integrable by [F4], and step 1.2 annihilates the cross term. Therefore E[(X−Z)2]=E[(X−U)2]+E[(U−Z)2]. The last term is nonnegative and is zero exactly when U=Z as an L2 class, since L2 is a normed space. The minimizer is therefore unique. Finally [F6] fixes every member of the subspace, so the conditional map is indeed the projection onto it.

Source notes

Durrett Theorem 4.1.15 and geometric remark, printed p.213; van der Vaart Lemma 1.8 and proof, printed p.3. The product-integrability route proves orthogonality for all L2 tests directly; closedness is separately established from the restricted L2 completeness interface.

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Sources