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Conditional expectation is the l2 orthogonal projection
Statement
Assume AC. Real embeds isometrically as a closed subspace of real . For , is its orthogonal projection onto this subspace. It uniquely minimizes over as an almost-sure class.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a probability space, a sub-sigma-algebra G, and real .
The conditional mean of an input belongs to (G). (Conditional lp contraction)
Under countable choice on every measure space is complete. (Riesz-Fischer completeness of for )
AC supplies countable choice for Riesz–Fischer, including representatives, and the inherited RN existence choices. (The Axiom of Choice)
products are integrable, with . (Cauchy-Schwarz inequality for )
A G-measurable finite factor can be taken out whenever the input and its product are integrable. (Taking out what is known)
Conditional expectation fixes G-measurable integrable variables. (Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable)
Conditional expectation preserves ordinary expectation. (Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation)
Proof
The inclusion sends the class of a -measurable function to its ambient class. Two such functions agree almost surely for the restricted measure exactly when they do for P; their squared integrals are identical. Thus inclusion is well defined, injective, linear and isometric. If a sequence in its image converges in ambient , its preimages are Cauchy, converge by [F2] under [F3], and their images converge to the same ambient limit by the isometry and uniqueness of metric limits. Hence the image is closed.
By [F1], . Fix . Both and are integrable by [F4]. Taking-out [F5] gives . Taking ordinary expectations by [F7] yields , hence . This establishes orthogonality for every Z directly, and in particular for bounded G-measurable tests, without a density argument.
For every , expand . All products are integrable by [F4], and step 1.2 annihilates the cross term. Therefore . The last term is nonnegative and is zero exactly when as an class, since is a normed space. The minimizer is therefore unique. Finally [F6] fixes every member of the subspace, so the conditional map is indeed the projection onto it.
Source notes
Durrett Theorem 4.1.15 and geometric remark, printed p.213; van der Vaart Lemma 1.8 and proof, printed p.3. The product-integrability route proves orthogonality for all tests directly; closedness is separately established from the restricted completeness interface.
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Sources
- Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, 5th ed. (standard reference, not scraped)