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Partial sums of independent centered variables are a martingale
Example
Assume AC. Let be given independent real integrable variables with , and fix . Then and form a martingale for and . This is also the natural filtration of the partial sums.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the example.
Generated sigma-algebras exist and are minimal. Nonempty intersections of sigma-algebras are sigma-algebras, so the generated sigma-algebra exists and is minimal.
Finite real arithmetic preserves measurability. Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined.
Finite linear combinations remain integrable and their integrals are linear. The Lebesgue integral is linear on .
The sigma-algebra of a finite past is independent of the next variable sigma-algebra. Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent.
An integrable variable independent of a sigma-algebra has constant conditional mean equal to its expectation. Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable.
An integrable variable measurable for the conditioning sigma-algebra conditions to itself. Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable.
Conditional expectation is linear, order preserving and expectation preserving. Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation.
AC supplies the inherited conditional-expectation existence and any stated choice of versions. The Axiom of Choice.
Verification
To justify the finite operations independently of the affected supplier proof, augment every finite disjoint simple display by the complement with coefficient . Pairwise intersections of two augmented displays partition the whole space and carry equal coefficients; finite additivity and prove representation independence. Common refinements give simple addition and monotonicity; scalar zero is direct and positive scalars are termwise. Supremum over simple minorants, increasing simple approximation and the sets for give monotone convergence and nonnegative additivity. Positive/negative and real/imaginary decompositions give finite linearity. This also repairs the integral base beneath the event identities defining the conditional classes used below. The generated sigma-algebras are nested because their generator families are nested. The finite sum is -measurable and . Independence means independence of the sigma-algebras Independent random elements. Group the first of these separately from . Then is independent of , so . At independence of the trivial sigma-algebra follows directly from its two events.
Conditioning the finite identity gives . Hence this is a martingale Martingale submartingale and supermartingale. Each for is measurable for , while is measurable for . Minimality in both directions proves equality of these sigma-algebras, including the trivial initial one, as required by Natural filtration of a process. AC is inherited solely from the conditional classes; the independent sequence was given.
For a concrete model let with each point of mass , , , and for . The two coordinate events have product probabilities because their intersections have cardinality the product of their cardinalities; adding constant variables preserves this identity. Here , , and for . Averaging the two values in each fixed-u fibre gives , and the first average is . This displays the calculation without an identical-distribution assumption.
Depends on
- Martingale submartingale and supermartingale
- Natural filtration of a process
- Nonempty intersections of sigma-algebras are sigma-algebras, so the generated sigma-algebra exists and is minimal
- Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent
- Independent random elements
- Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable
- Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation
- The Lebesgue integral is linear on $L^1(\mu)$
- Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined
- The Axiom of Choice
Used by
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Sources
- Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, fifth edition (standard reference, not scraped)