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A transient chain can return with positive probability

Statement refuted

The assertion that a transient state has zero probability of ever returning to itself is false.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Assume AC. Let p>q>0 with p+q=1, and use the biased nearest- neighbor kernel on E=Z,

K(z,⋅)=pδz+1+qδz−1.

For each fixed x∈Z, let Px be the canonical law with X0=x, put r=q/p, and let Tx+=inf⁡{n≥1:Xn=x}.

[A1]

AC is the principle that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. (The Axiom of Choice)

[F1]

For this biased kernel and each deterministic start x, the canonical chain law Px exists under the stated AC assumption. (Green kernel of a biased integer walk)

[F2]

For the same walk, the Green kernel satisfies G(x,y)={1p−q,y≥x,rx−yp−q,y<x. (Green kernel of a biased integer walk)

[F3]

Under AC, recurrence is equivalent to divergence of the diagonal transition series. (Equivalent criteria for recurrence and transience)

[F4]

A state is transient exactly when its positive-time return probability is strictly less than one. (Recurrent and transient states)

[F5]

For a transient state with return probability ρx=Px(Tx+<∞), the expected visit count equals the diagonal transition series and is 1/(1−ρx). (Equivalent criteria for recurrence and transience)

Counterexample

1.1A1F1F2given

Fix any x∈Z. AC [A1] and the already constructed walk [F1] give its canonical deterministic-start law. Since p>q>0, the diagonal value in [F2] is finite and positive: G(x,x)=1p−q<∞.

2.1F2F3F4step 1.1given

By [F2], this finite value is the series ∑n≥0p(n)(x,x). The recurrence criterion [F3] therefore rules out recurrence. The alternatives in [F4] then give ρx:=Px(Tx+<∞)<1, so x is transient.

3.1F2F5step 1.1step 2.1given∎

For this transient state, [F5] identifies the same visit series with ExNx=1/(1−ρx). Equating it to [F2] gives 11−ρx=1p−q,ρx=1−(p−q)=2q, using p+q=1. Since 0<q<p and p+q=1, we have 0<2q<1. Thus the state is transient, yet its probability of a positive-time return is strictly positive. Translation invariance makes the calculation valid for every x∈Z; the Green series counts the initial visit, whereas Tx+ starts at time one.

Depends on

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