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CounterexampleConstruction: AI-adaptedVerification: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-07
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Cauchy averages admit no deterministic weak centering

Statement refuted

Assume countable choice and dependent choice. For IID real variables with density f(x)=1/[π(1+x2)] on R, there is no deterministic real sequence (μn) for which Sn/nμn0 in probability, where Sn=k=1nXk. Thus IID alone cannot guarantee a weak law even with varying deterministic centering.

Facts & Assumptions

[F1]

Exact tail criterion for a truncated-centered IID weak law: For IID real random variables (Xn)n1 and Sn=k=1nXk, there exist deterministic real constants (μn) with Sn/nμn0 in probability if and only if nP(X1>n)0. When this condition holds, μn=E[X11{X1n}] works. Neither existence of an untruncated mean nor convergence of (μn) is asserted.

[F2]

Countably many independent copies of a prescribed law exist: Assume countable choice and dependent choice. Every probability measure ν on (S,Σ) is the common law of a countable independent family of S-valued random elements.

[F3]

Law or distribution of a random element: Let X:(Ω,F,P)(S,Σ) be a random element. Its law or distribution is the set function PX:Σ[0,+],PX(B):=P(X1(B)). Thus the law of X records the probability of each measurable target set by pulling it back to an event in the original probability space.

[F4]

Probability laws correspond to distribution functions: Assume the Axiom of Countable Choice. 1. Let X be a real random variable, let PX be its law, and let FX(x)=P(Xx). Then FX is nondecreasing and right-continuous, satisfies limxFX(x)=0,limx+FX(x)=1, and obeys PX((a,b])=FX(b)FX(a)(a<b). 2. Conversely, if F:RR is nondecreasing and right-continuous with limxF(x)=0,limx+F(x)=1, then there is a unique Borel probability measure μ on R such that μ((a,b])=F(b)F(a)(a<b), equivalently F(x)=μ((,x])(xR).

Counterexample

Given: The construction and assumptions above.

1.1

The nonnegative density has total integral [arctanx/π]=1 and F(x)=1/2+arctan(x)/π is nondecreasing and continuous with limits zero and one. The distribution-function correspondence therefore supplies its Borel probability law; the fundamental theorem of calculus identifies its density as f. Under countable choice and dependent choice, construct IID copies with that law. Symmetry of the density gives P(X1>n)=(2/π)n(1+x2)1dx.

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2.1

For xn1, x2/(1+n2)(1+x2)1x2. Integrating and multiplying by n gives 2/[π(1+n2)]nP(X1>n)2/π. Thus this tail quantity tends to 2/π, not zero. Necessity in the truncated-centering criterion rules out every deterministic centering sequence.

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