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Summable untruncated variances are not necessary
Statement refuted
It is false that almost-sure convergence of a series of independent centered square-integrable variables forces summability of their untruncated variances. Assume countable choice and dependent choice. Let and for take independent with Then converges absolutely almost surely, although and for every .
Facts & Assumptions
First Borel-Cantelli lemma for events: Let be events in a probability space. If then No independence hypothesis is needed.
Coordinate random elements of a countable product are independent: Under the measure of thm-countable-product-of-probability-spaces, the coordinate maps have laws and are independent.
Assuming countable and dependent choice, countable products of arbitrary probability spaces: Assume countable choice and dependent choice. For probability spaces there is a unique probability measure on such that, for every finite , its -coordinate marginal is .
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
Counterexample
Given: The construction and assumptions above.
Under countable choice and dependent choice take the countable product of these finite probability spaces. The specified masses are nonnegative and sum to one; its independent coordinates have the desired laws. For , direct finite expectation gives and , hence variance . The first coordinate is zero.
The sum is finite. The first Borel–Cantelli lemma gives only finitely many nonzero terms almost surely. On that event the absolute sum is a finite sum of finite numbers, hence finite, and the original partial sums converge. But their untruncated variance sum is . The example has no uniform bound on all summands.
Depends on
- First Borel-Cantelli lemma for events
- Coordinate random elements of a countable product are independent
- Assuming countable and dependent choice, countable products of arbitrary probability spaces
- The p-series for a real exponent p converges exactly when p is greater than one
- Almost-sure convergence of a random series
Used by
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Sources
- Borel–Cantelli Lemma 3.4, pp. 58–59; Theorem 3.12 fixed-truncation conditions, pp. 66–68, direct counterexample (standard reference, not scraped)