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A stationary sticky chain with finite variance and no root-n CLT

Statement refuted

Finite variance of a centered observable alone guarantees a root-n central limit theorem for every stationary Markov chain.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A two-state measurable space, a transition kernel, an initial law, and a real observable.

[A1]

AC is used by the library's Markov-chain law/stationarity convention. (The Axiom of Choice)

[F1]

A stationary distribution is an invariant probability for the transition kernel. (Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel)

[F2]

An invariant initial law makes the Markov chain strictly stationary. (Invariant initial law makes a Markov chain stationary)

[F3]

Variance is the centered second moment. (Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space)

[F4]

Convergence in distribution requires convergence of distribution functions at every continuity point of the limiting law. (Convergence in distribution for real random variables)

[F5]

ϕ-irreducibility requires every ϕ-positive set to be reachable from every state; Harris recurrence strengthens this to almost-sure hitting from every state. (Phi-irreducibility for a general-state Markov kernel, Harris recurrence relative to an irreducibility measure)

Counterexample

1.1A1F1F2F3given

Let X={0,1}, P(0,{0})=P(1,{1})=1, and let π({0})=π({1})=1/2. The identity kernel leaves π invariant, so the chain initialized with X0∼π is stationary by [F2]. Set f(0)=−1 and f(1)=1. Then π(f)=0 and π(f2)=1.

2.1F4step 1.1algebra

The transition is deterministic, hence Xk=X0 for every k and Sn:=∑k=0n−1f(Xk)=nf(X0). Thus Sn/n=nf(X0) takes values ±n with equal probabilities. For each fixed t>0, once n>t2 its distribution function at t is 1/2, while any N(0,σ2) has distribution function strictly greater than 1/2 at t when σ2>0 and equal to 1 when σ2=0. Since t is a continuity point of every such normal law, [F4] rules out convergence to any normal distribution.

3.1F5step 1.1algebra∎

Choose ϕ=π and A={1}. Then ϕ(A)=1/2>0, but Pn(0,A)=0 for every n≥1 because the chain stays at 0. By [F5] the chain is not ϕ-irreducible and is not Harris recurrent relative to ϕ. This counterexample shows only that finite variance without an ergodicity assumption does not guarantee a root-n CLT.

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