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Continuous images of the scaled posterior converge weakly

Statement

Assume AC and the hypotheses of Weak nonparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorem for product priors. Let T be a metric space and let G:H(δ)→T be Borel measurable with N(DG)=0, where DG:={x∈H(δ):G is not continuous at x}. For every bounded continuous h:T→R,

∫h d(Π~n∘G−1)⟶∫h d(N∘G−1)

in Pf0(n)-probability. In particular this holds for continuous maps, including continuous linear functionals into Rm.

Facts & Assumptions

[F1]

The scaled posterior converges weakly on the negative Sobolev space: Π~n converges weakly in probability to N on H(δ).

[F2]

Continuous mapping theorem: If μn⇒μ on a metric space and G is measurable with μ(DG)=0, then G∗μn⇒G∗μ.

[F3]

The bounded-Lipschitz metric characterizes weak convergence on Polish spaces: Under AC, the bounded-Lipschitz metric metrizes weak convergence on Polish H(δ).

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is needed only for the weak-topology interpretation imported through [F1] and [F3]; the continuous-mapping step is the choice-free theorem [F2].

Given: AC, a metric target T, the map G, and the posterior and limit measures in the statement.

Proof

1.1A1F2F3given

Fix a bounded continuous h:T→R and define Φ(ν):=∫h d(ν∘G−1). If βBL,H(δ)(νm,N)→0, [F3] gives νm⇒N under [A1]; [F2] and N(DG)=0 imply νm∘G−1⇒N∘G−1, hence Φ(νm)→Φ(N). Since βBL is a metric, this sequential criterion proves continuity of Φ at N.

2.1F1F3step 1.1∎

Given ε>0, continuity from step 1.1 supplies η>0 such that βBL,H(δ)(ν,N)<η implies ∣Φ(ν)−Φ(N)∣<ε. Therefore Pf0(n){∣Φ(Π~n)−Φ(N)∣≥ε}≤Pf0(n){βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,N)≥η}⟶0 by [F1] and [F3], which give bounded-Lipschitz convergence in probability on H(δ). This is the stated convergence in probability for h.

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