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Weak nonparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorem for product priors

Statement

Let (ψlk) be the S-regular wavelet basis in Logarithmic negative Sobolev spaces for white noise, with 2l coefficients at each level l≥0. For α>0, put σl=2−l(α+1/2) and let the prior on f=∑l,kσlξlkψlk have IID coefficients ξlk with density φ. Assume countable choice for the L2 prior construction supplied by The wavelet product prior is L2-valued, and take the full posterior kernel as the supplied model input of The product-prior posterior factors by coordinates. Let f0∈L2([0,1]), write θ0,lk=⟨f0,ψlk⟩ and rlk=θ0,lk/σl, and suppose

sup⁡l,k∣rlk∣≤M<τ,

where φ is a probability density satisfying φ(u)≤Cφ for every u, φ(u)≥cφ>0 for ∣u∣<τ, ∫u2φ(u) du<∞, and φ is continuous at each rlk. The observation model is

dX(n)(t)=f0(t) dt+n−1/2dW(t),0≤t≤1,

with standard white noise W; in the stated basis this is the sequence experiment Xlk=θ0,lk+n−1/2Zlk with independent standard normal coordinates. Let Πn(⋅∣X) be the product-coordinate posterior of The product-prior posterior factors by coordinates. Let N be the law of the canonical white noise in H(δ) and define

Π~n:=Πn(⋅∣X)∘[f↦n(f−X)]−1,βBL,H(δ)(μ,ν):=sup⁡∥g∥∞≤1Lip⁡H(δ)(g)≤1∣∫g dμ−∫g dν∣.

For every δ>1/2,

βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,N)⟶0

in probability under the true white-noise law Pf0(n). This is a bounded-Lipschitz weak BvM conclusion; it asserts neither total-variation convergence on all Borel subsets nor an L2-valued Gaussian limit.

Facts & Assumptions

[F1]

Logarithmic negative Sobolev spaces for white noise: H(δ) has norm ∥u∥H(δ)2=∑l,kwlδ∣ulk∣2, where wlδ=al−1(log⁡al)−2δ, and its trace sum is finite for δ>1/2.

[F2]

The wavelet product prior is L2-valued: The product prior series defines an L2-valued random element for α>0 and finite coefficient second moment.

[F3]

White noise is a Borel Gaussian law on the negative Sobolev space: The canonical white-noise coefficient sequence has Borel Gaussian law N on H(δ) for δ>1/2, is not L2-valued, and satisfies E∥W∥H(δ′)2=∑l,kwlδ′<∞ for every δ′>1/2.

[F4]

A negative-Sobolev posterior second-moment bound: For any δ′>1/2, n Ef0(n)∫∥f−f0∥H(δ′)2 Πn(df∣X) is bounded uniformly in n.

[F5]

Finite-coordinate posterior total-variation limit: For every fixed finite coordinate projection, the posterior and standard Gaussian densities of n(θJ−XJ) converge in L1 in probability.

[F6]

The product-prior posterior factors by coordinates: A supplied posterior kernel has product-coordinate marginals with densities proportional to e−n(θj−Xj)2/2σj−1φ(θj/σj).

[F7]

Cauchy-Schwarz for random variables: On any probability space, E∣UV∣≤(EU2)1/2(EV2)1/2 for square-integrable real random variables.

[F8]

Markov's inequality for random variables: For nonnegative Y and a>0, P(Y≥a)≤E[Y]/a.

[A1]

The Axiom of Countable Choice (ACω): Countable choice supplies the L2 prior construction and the density normal-law interface used by [F3]. The full posterior kernel is supplied as model input by [F6]; the posterior moment estimate, finite-coordinate convergence, and projection/tail inequalities introduce no further choice axiom.

Given: Countable choice, the basis, prior, truth, density conditions, white-noise experiment, and the supplied posterior kernel of [F6]. The stated bounded-Lipschitz convergence is proved below without using full AC.

Proof

1.1F1givenalgebra

Fix δ>1/2 and choose δ′ with 1/2<δ′<δ. Let PJ retain all wavelet coordinates with level l≤J. Since wlδ/wlδ′=(log⁡al)−2(δ−δ′) and al→∞, for qJ:=(log⁡aJ+1)−(δ−δ′) one has ∥(I−PJ)u∥H(δ)≤qJ∥u∥H(δ′)andqJ→0. For any probability law Q on H(δ), coupling U with PJU and using the defining Lipschitz bound gives βBL,H(δ)(Q,Q∘PJ−1)≤∫∥(I−PJ)u∥H(δ) Q(du).

1.2F5algebra

For a fixed J, the middle term in βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,N)≤βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,Π~n∘PJ−1)+βBL,H(δ)(Π~n∘PJ−1,N∘PJ−1)+βBL,H(δ)(N∘PJ−1,N) tends to zero in probability: [F5] gives L1 convergence of the projected posterior and Gaussian coordinate densities. Every bounded-Lipschitz test function restricted to the projected subspace is bounded by 1, so its integral difference is at most that L1 distance.

1.3F1F3F7algebra

The last term is bounded by E∥W−PJW∥H(δ), which is at most (E∥W−PJW∥H(δ)2)1/2=(∑l>J,kwlδ)1/2 by [F3] and [F7]. This tends to zero as J→∞ by [F1].

2.1A1F2F3F4F6F7step 1.1algebra

Under the joint true-data/posterior law, using the supplied posterior model [F6] and the L2 prior construction [F2], U=n(f−X)=n(f−f0)−W, where W=n(X−f0) has law N. By [F4], [F3] and (a−b)2≤2a2+2b2, Ef0(n)∫∥U∥H(δ′)2 Πn(df∣X)≤2nEf0(n)∫∥f−f0∥H(δ′)2 Πn(df∣X)+2E∥W∥H(δ′)2≤C, with C independent of n. Applying [F7] under the posterior probability and then under the true-data probability, together with step 1.1, gives Ef0(n)βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,Π~n∘PJ−1)≤qJC. Thus the first projection error can be made uniformly small by taking J large.

3.1F8step 2.1step 1.2step 1.3algebra∎

Fix 0<ε<1 and choose J so the expected first and deterministic third terms are each less than ε2. By [F8], the probability that the first term exceeds ε is at most ε; the deterministic third term is less than ε. For this fixed J, step 1.2 makes the probability that the middle term exceeds ε tend to zero. The triangle bound then gives a limiting upper bound ε for the probability that the full distance exceeds 3ε. Since ε is arbitrary, βBL,H(δ)(Π~n,N)→0 in Pf0(n)-probability.

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