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The product-prior posterior factors by coordinates

Statement

Assume countable choice for the L2-valued prior construction. Let the wavelet product prior have independent coefficients θlk=σlξlk, where the ξlk are IID with density φ. Observe the independent Gaussian sequence

Xlk=θ0,lk+n−1/2Zlk,

where the Zlk have the standard normal density and are independent of the prior. Assume a data-indexed posterior kernel for the L2-valued prior is supplied as part of this model. In the product white-noise model, for every finite set J of coefficient indices its conditional law of (θj)j∈J given the full data sequence (Xj) is the product of the one-coordinate densities

pj,n(t∣Xj)=e−n(t−Xj)2/2 σj−1φ(t/σj)∫Re−n(s−Xj)2/2 σj−1φ(s/σj) ds,j∈J.

Here j abbreviates a pair (l,k) and σj=σl. For J=∅, the formula denotes the unit law on the zero-dimensional one-point space. Each denominator is strictly positive and finite: the Gaussian factor is everywhere positive and at most 1, while the prior density integrates to 1.

Facts & Assumptions

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families: The prior coefficients are mutually independent and have a common law; scaling by the fixed positive σl preserves coordinate independence.

[F2]

Independent random elements are characterized by finite rectangle probabilities: Independence of random elements is equivalent to factorization of probabilities on all finite measurable rectangles.

[F3]

Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem: If a lambda-system contains a generating pi-system, it contains the generated sigma-algebra.

[L1]

The wavelet product prior is L2-valued: The wavelet prior coefficients define an L2-valued random element under the stated scale and finite-second-moment conditions.

[A1]

The Axiom of Countable Choice (ACω): Countable choice is used only for the L2-valued prior construction supplied by [L1]; the finite-coordinate factorization argument itself uses no choice axiom.

[A2]

The full data-indexed posterior kernel on L2 is supplied as part of the model. We use the version whose finite-coordinate marginals are the displayed densities; the proof verifies their conditional-law identities under the prior-predictive model. This item does not claim a general full-kernel existence theorem.

Given: Countable choice, the product prior, the independent Gaussian coordinate experiment, and the supplied posterior kernel [A2]. The coordinate marginal formula is verified below.

Proof

1.1F1F2F3

For each coordinate j, the pair (θj,Xj) is a measurable function of the independent pair (ξj,Zj). Thus the coordinate pairs are independent: finite rectangle probabilities factor by [F1] and [F2]. Fix finite J. For any cylinder event B depending on finitely many observations outside J, the random vector (θJ,XJ) is independent of B by that same factorization. The events in σ(XJc) for which this independence identity holds form a lambda-system containing the outside-coordinate cylinder pi-system; [F3] extends it to all outside-data events. Hence conditioning on XJc adds no information about θJ once XJ is known.

2.1A1A2F1F2step 1.1L1algebra

For finite J, the joint prior density of θJ is the product of σj−1φ(tj/σj), and the likelihood of XJ=xJ is proportional to ∏j∈Je−n(xj−tj)2/2. Each one-dimensional normalizer is at most 1 and is positive: the Gaussian factor is bounded by 1, is strictly positive everywhere, and the prior density integrates to 1. Thus the normalized product density is ∏j∈Jpj,n(tj∣xj). Integrating it over rectangles in θJ and XJ verifies the conditional-law identity for these coordinates. The prior is a Borel probability on L2 by [L1] under [A1], and [A2] supplies the full posterior kernel; step 1.1 extends the finite-coordinate identity to the full observation sequence.

3.1step 2.1∎

The product of the one-coordinate conditional densities in step 2.1 is exactly the stated finite-dimensional posterior marginal, so the posterior factors by coordinates for every finite index set J.

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