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Type-S and Type-H density credible bands have asymptotically exact coverage

Statement

Assume AC. Use either Type-S1, Type-S2 or Type-H with all the truth, basis, prior-scale, Dirichlet-parameter and cutoff conditions of Type-S log-density and type-H histogram prior families. Let wl≥1 be nondecreasing, wl/l+1→∞, and ∑lwl2−l/2<∞. In Type S take Tn=Pn(Ln), the empirical wavelet projection through level Ln. In Type H take the empirical histogram Tn=hn at mesh 2−Ln, equivalently the Haar projection with scaling coordinate and details l<Ln.

For each 0<η<1, the posterior multiscale and CDF balls of CDF and multiscale credible-band calibration from weak BvM limits, at posterior level 1−η and centered at these Tn, have posterior mass at least 1−η and frequentist coverage tending to 1−η. Their scaled radii converge in probability to the positive finite 1−η quantiles of the corresponding Gaussian bridge norms. In particular, writing Fh(t)=∫0th(x)dx, the posterior law of n(Ff−FTn) converges in bounded-Lipschitz distance on C([0,1]) to the P0-Brownian bridge law, in P0n-probability.

If additionally the coefficient smoothness and undersmoothing hypotheses of Diameter of undersmoothed multiscale credible bands hold, its intersection with the stated coefficient smoothness ball has the same limiting coverage and the diameter bound asserted there. No unverified entropy, prior-mass, posterior contraction or quantile-regularity premise is required in this corollary.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, one of the three source-specific prior regimes, the specified empirical center, admissible summable weights, and 0<η<1.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice is inherited from the following suppliers.

[F1]

Type-S density posteriors satisfy the weak multiscale Bernstein–von Mises theorem and Type-H histogram posterior weak Bernstein–von Mises theorem prove posterior bounded-Lipschitz convergence about the respective empirical projections, to the Borel Gaussian bridge with covariance P0[(ψ−P0ψ)(ψ′−P0ψ′)].

[F2]

Compact wavelet projections approximate smooth functions and commute asymptotically with multiplication preserves coefficient regularity of eg at every positive order, including integers. Projected empirical bridge CLT in the little-o multiscale space proves the sampling CLT for bounded truths with coefficient smoothness γ>1/2 and either cutoff regime.

[F3]

Continuous and strictly increasing norm distributions for density bridges proves that both bridge norm CDFs are continuous and strictly increasing on positive arguments and have unique positive finite interior quantiles, under the given positive bounded truth and primitive-map summability conditions.

[F4]

CDF and multiscale credible-band calibration from weak BvM limits gives measurable credible balls, CDF pushforward convergence, radius limits and exact asymptotic coverage from posterior BvM, the sampling-center CLT and the stated norm-quantile conditions.

[F5]

Diameter of undersmoothed multiscale credible bands gives the additional smoothness-ball coverage and diameter conclusion under its explicit coefficient smoothness and undersmoothing assumptions.

Proof

1.1A1F1F2givenalgebra

In Type S, [F1] proves posterior BvM about Tn=Pn(Ln) with the locally proved S1 range α>1 and Gaussian S2 range α>1/2, 0<r<α−1/4. The truth g0=log⁡f0 has α coefficient regularity, so [F2] gives that regularity for f0=eg0 as well. The retained basis has the support, overlap and supremum bounds required by the empirical-process theorem in [F2]. Taking γ=α>1/2 and the given cutoff therefore proves its sampling-center CLT with the same Gaussian bridge.

1.2F1F2givenalgebra

In Type H, [F1] proves posterior BvM about the empirical histogram hn. Haar wavelets have the same support, overlap and supremum bounds. The ordinary α-Hölder truth, 1/2<α≤1, has Haar coefficients bounded by C2−l(α+1/2): subtract its value at one point of the support in the coefficient integral, use the zero mean, support diameter 2−l and L1 norm 2−l/2. The histogram projection retains details through Jn=Ln−1. Both given cutoff regimes remain true with this Jn, since multiplying 2Ln by 1/2 changes only their comparison constants. Thus [F2] with γ=α gives the sampling CLT about this exact histogram center. The finite scaling coordinate is included and its centered fluctuation is zero.

2.1F1F3F4step 1.1step 1.2given

In all three cases, positivity and boundedness of f0, admissibility, and the displayed summability verify [F3]. Hence every norm-quantile assumption of [F4] holds at u=1−η. Steps 1.1, 1.2 verify its posterior and sampling premises, with the same coefficient covariance law. Applying [F4] proves all asserted CDF limits, measurable credibility, radius limits and frequentist coverage, for the exact empirical centers and every 0<η<1.

3.1F5step 2.1given∎

When the additional hypotheses in the last paragraph of the Statement hold, the multiscale credible ball just obtained is precisely the input to [F5]. Applying that theorem yields its smoothness-intersection coverage and stated diameter rate. These are additional hypotheses only for this diameter conclusion; the coverage and CDF conclusions in step 2.1 required no such extra conditions.

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