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Expected query cost from finite execution prefixes

Definition

Fix a promised input z and a sequential procedure whose elementary steps are deterministic transitions, finite random transitions, finite-outcome measurements, or a single oracle call. At every live history, the next transition has a specified probability law on a finite outcome set; a query step has one successor and issues one call. A halted history is extended by deterministic idle steps that issue no calls.

For M∈N, let ΩM be the finite set of length-M histories with the recursively assigned transition weights. Let CM:ΩM→{0,…,M} count the oracle calls actually executed in those M steps. Define the expected query cost on input z by

Equery(z):=sup⁡M∈NE[CM]∈[0,∞],

where each expectation is taken on the finite probability space of the corresponding prefix. Define the pathwise total query count on an infinite history ω by C(ω):=sup⁡MCM(ω). No probability measure or expectation of C on an infinite history space is presumed by this definition.

If a procedure is organized into rounds of at most K elementary steps for some fixed integer K≥1, each containing at most one query, pad each round with deterministic idle steps to exactly K steps. In this padded procedure, its first R rounds are the prefix of length KR. Hence the supremum of its finite-round expected query counts equals the displayed finite-step supremum. In particular, query-indexed rounds are valid when each round contains exactly one query, as in Simon sampling.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A fixed promised input and a sequential procedure satisfying the finite-outcome transition and one-query-per-step conditions in the Definition.

[A1]

At each live finite history h, the next-step probabilities ph(o) are nonnegative and sum to one over the finite next-outcome set; after halting, the unique idle successor has probability one.

[A2]

[0,∞] denotes the extended nonnegative reals with the usual least-upper-bound convention, so every subset has a supremum in that interval.

[F1]

Finite probability spaces, outcome weights, events, and event probabilities: a finite probability space has nonnegative outcome weights summing to one, and events are subsets of its finite outcome set.

[F2]

Real random variables on finite probability spaces and their finite distributions: a real random variable on a finite probability space is a function on its finite outcome set and therefore has finite range.

[F3]

Expectation of a real random variable on a finite probability space: the expectation is the finite sum of outcome values multiplied by their probability weights.

[F4]

Finite commutative-monoid sums are invariant under bijective reindexing, split over disjoint unions, and satisfy the finite Fubini rule: finite sums can be reindexed by bijections and a sum over a finite Cartesian product equals either iterated finite sum.

[F5]

The principle of mathematical induction: a property holding at zero and preserved from M to M+1 holds for every natural number M.

Verification

1.1givenF1base

For M=0, the only history is the empty history with weight one, so Ω0 is a finite probability space by [F1].

2.1givenA1F1F4step 1.1ihalgebra

Assume the length-M histories form a finite probability space. Each has finitely many successors, so their length-(M+1) extensions form a finite set. For each parent history h, the total weight of its children is w(h)∑oph(o)=w(h) by [A1]. Summing over the finite parent set by [F4] shows that the extended weights again sum to one. Thus ΩM+1 is a finite probability space.

3.1step 1.1step 2.1F5discharge-induction

Steps 1.1 and 2.1 establish the base and successor cases; induction [F5] proves that every ΩM is a finite probability space.

3.2A1F4step 2.1algebra

For any length-M history h, the sum of the weights of its length-(M+1) extensions is w(h)∑oph(o)=w(h) by [A1]. Therefore projection to length-M prefixes preserves every prefix's probability weight.

4.1givenF2step 3.2algebra

The count CM is a function on the finite set ΩM, so it is a finite real random variable by [F2]. Every additional step either adds one query or is a nonquery or idle step; consequently, under the prefix projection, CM≤CM+1 pathwise.

5.1F1F3step 3.2step 4.1algebra

By [F3] and the prefix-marginal identity in step 3.2, the expectation of CM computed on the length-(M+1) tree equals its length-M expectation. The pointwise inequality in step 4.1 and nonnegative transition weights then give E[CM]≤E[CM+1]. Each expectation is finite because 0≤CM≤M.

5.2A2F1F3step 3.1step 4.1

Each CM is bounded between 0 and M, so its finite-space expectation is a finite nonnegative real by [F1] and [F3]. Step 3.1 supplies a normalized prefix space for every M, and [A2] therefore makes the displayed supremum well-defined in [0,∞].

6.1givenA2F3step 5.1choosealgebradischarge-induction: step 3.1∎

For round length bounded by K≥1, pad every round by idle steps so its end is a length-KR prefix after R rounds. These round-end indices are cofinal in N: for every M choose R with KR≥M. By step 5.1 the expected counts are nondecreasing, so sup⁡RE[CKR]=sup⁡ME[CM]. This proves the finite-round claim without applying a finite-space theorem to an unbounded total count.

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