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How statement and proof provenance work

The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.

  • Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
  • AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
  • AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.

These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.

Sampling and finite-bootstrap errors for a Bernoulli mean

Example

Let X1,X2 be IID observations in {0,1} with P(Xi=1)=3/4 and P(Xi=0)=1/4. Take each observation as one resampling unit in the finite measurable space ({0,1},2{0,1}), and define T2(x1,x2):=(x1+x2)/2 on {0,1}2. The map is measurable because its domain has the full power-set sigma-algebra. Suppose the observed ordered sample is (0,1), an event of probability 3/16>0. The population mean is θ=3/4, while the data estimate is T2(0,1)=1/2. Fix these data and use the size-two empirical-law bootstrap of Size-n bootstrap from the empirical law. Each resample chooses two indices independently and uniformly from {1,2}, with replacement. Its conditional sample-mean law has values 0,1/2,1 with probabilities 1/4,1/2,1/4. In four independent resamples, suppose the ordered index pairs are (1,1),(1,2),(2,2),(2,2), giving means 0,1/2,1,1. This finite realization lets us compare the data-sampling error, the exact conditional bootstrap target, and finite-B simulation error. It makes no bootstrap-validity claim.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The stated IID two-point observation law, observed sample (0,1), finite unit space and map T2, bootstrap procedure, and four realized resamples. Prove the conditional bootstrap law and error separation.

[F1]

The error ledger uses a declared scalar target and explicit successive reference values, with each stage error equal to the difference of adjacent references. (Successive statistical and computational error targets)

[F2]

The total realized error along the finite reference chain is the sum of its signed stage errors. (Pathwise error decomposition along a reference chain)

[F3]

Identical distribution and IID families: IID means a common law and mutual independence.

[F4]

Size-n bootstrap from the empirical law: for a fixed tuple of length n≥1, draw n indices independently and uniformly from [n], with replacement, and apply the declared measurable statistic to the resampled tuple.

[F5]

Empirical-law bootstrap draws are conditionally IID: conditional on the fixed observed tuple, the resampled coordinates are IID with common law equal to its empirical measure.

[F6]

For B≥2 IID finite-variance replicate outputs, [B(B−1)]−1∑b(Zb−Z‾B)2 is unbiased for the variance of their average. (Unbiased variance estimate from independent computation replicates)

[A1]

The observations are IID with the stated two-point law; the target is their mean θ=3/4.

[A2]

The observed ordered tuple is (0,1) in the finite measurable unit space ({0,1},2{0,1}); each entry is one resampling unit and T2(x1,x2)=(x1+x2)/2 is measurable on the full power-set sample space.

[A3]

Four independent repetitions of the stated bootstrap algorithm produce the listed ordered index pairs.

Verification

1.1givenA1A2algebra

By [A1], the observed event (X1,X2)=(0,1) has probability (1/4)(3/4)=3/16>0. By [A2], its statistic is T2(0,1)=1/2, so the realized data-sampling error is 1/2−3/4=−1/4.

1.2givenA2F4F5constructalgebra

By [F4] and [F5], the four equally likely ordered pairs of bootstrap indices have sample means 0,1/2,1/2,1, respectively. Therefore the conditional bootstrap mean is 1/2 and its conditional variance is (1/4)(1/2)2+(1/2)02+(1/4)(1/2)2=1/8.

2.1givenA3F4step 1.2algebra

The four stated means average to (0+1/2+1+1)/4=5/8, so the finite-B simulation error relative to the exact conditional bootstrap mean is 5/8−1/2=1/8. Each ordered index pair has conditional probability 1/4; independence across the four repetitions makes this listed realization have probability (1/4)4=1/256>0.

2.2F3F6step 1.2A3algebra

Under the conditional resampling law, the four replicate means are IID with variance 1/8 by step 1.2 and [A3]; [F6] gives variance 1/(4⋅8)=1/32 for their average. This is computation-randomization variance conditional on the data, distinct from the data-sampling error in step 1.1.

3.1F1F2step 1.1step 1.2step 2.1algebra∎

The chain 3/4,1/2,1/2,5/8,5/8 has successive errors −1/4,0,1/8,0. Their sum is −1/8=5/8−3/4, so the realized total error is exactly the separate sampling and finite-B errors in steps 1.1 and 2.1.

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