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A discrete pivot can give conservative coverage

Example

Let Θ=Z, let the measurable observation space be (Z,2Z), and for each θ∈Z assign probability 1/3 to each of θ−1,θ,θ+1. Let X have this law, put Q(X;θ)=X−θ, choose nominal level 1−α=4/5, and use the central pivot set B=[−1,1]. The inverted set is C(X)={η∈Z:∣X−η∣≤1}={X−1,X,X+1} Its coverage is 1, so it is conservative for the nominal 4/5 level. The atom masses prevent the equal-tail quantiles from calibrating the central acceptance set to probability 4/5.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite model and the procedure specified in the Example.

[F1]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure has total mass one.

[F2]

Pivotal quantities: a pivot has a parameter-free sampling law.

[F3]

Confidence sets and coverage: coverage is the probability that the true parameter belongs to the procedure's output.

[F4]

Coverage from pivot inversion and exact calibration: pivot inversion has at-least coverage when the acceptance set has probability at least the target level.

[F5]

Sigma-algebras: a sigma-algebra is an algebra of subsets closed under countable unions.

[F6]

Statistical experiments: an experiment fixes a measurable observation space and a probability law for each parameter.

Verification

1.1givenF1F2F5F6algebra

The full power set 2Z is an algebra of subsets closed under countable unions, so it is a sigma-algebra by [F5]. Explicitly set Pθ(A)=13(1A(θ−1)+1A(θ)+1A(θ+1)) for every A⊆Z. These values are nonnegative and have total mass 1. For a pairwise disjoint sequence Am, ∑mPθ(Am)=13∑z∈{−1,0,1}∑m1Am(θ+z)=13∑z∈{−1,0,1}1∪mAm(θ+z)=Pθ(∪mAm). Thus it is countably additive, hence a probability measure, and specifies the experiment family in [F6]. Under Pθ, Q(X;θ) assigns mass 1/3 to each of −1,0,1, independently of θ; hence Q is a pivot with Pθ(Q∈B)=1.

2.1givenF3F4step 1.1algebra∎

Define FQ(t):=Pθ(Q≤t) and the generalized quantile qr:=inf⁡{t∈R:FQ(t)≥r}. By the definition of C, the event {θ∈C(X)} is {∣X−θ∣≤1}, which occurs for all three possible observations. Thus its probability and coverage equal 1; this exceeds 4/5, while [F4] also applies since Pθ(Q∈B)=1≥4/5. The pivot cdf is 0 below −1, 1/3 on [−1,0), 2/3 on [0,1), and 1 from 1 onward. Thus the generalized 1/10 and 9/10 quantiles are −1 and 1, and their closed interval contains all atoms.

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