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A tied two-sample Bernoulli permutation test

Example

Let Ω={0,1}2, and for q∈[0,1] assign the four vectors masses Pq(0,0)=(1−q)2,Pq(0,1)=q(1−q),Pq(1,0)=q(1−q),Pq(1,1)=q2. These are two independent Bernoulli(q) observations, one in each sample. Let G=S2 act by swapping coordinates and take the signed two-sample score T(x)=x1−x2. Under the equal-distribution null, the law is invariant under this swap. For the discordant sample x=(1,0) the full-orbit p-value is 1/2; for x=(0,1) it is 1, and either tied sample has inclusive p-value 1.

For a uniform-subset Monte Carlo example without replacement, let G=Z/6Z act on itself by addition with its full power-set sigma-algebra, let X be uniform on G, and take T(x)=1{x=0}. Set B=2, choose S uniformly from the ten two-element subsets of G∖{0} independently of X, and use W={0}∪S. This is the identity-adjoined design of Identity-corrected random-permutation Monte Carlo p-value, with p2,wor(x)=#{g∈W:T(g+x)≥T(x)}3.

The equal-distribution null above is stronger than equality of means. For a weak mean-difference null, use the data space D2 with full power-set sigma-algebra, where D={−2,−1,0,1,2}, and let S2 act by swapping coordinates. On D2 assign (x,y) mass P{x}Q{y}, where P puts mass 1/2 on each of −1,1 and Q puts masses 1/4,1/2,1/4 on −2,0,2, respectively. Use the score T(x,y)=x−y. Both coordinate means are zero, so the weak mean-difference null E[X]=E[Y] holds. The pooled law is not invariant under the swap.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The Bernoulli product law, its coordinate-swap action and score, and the full-orbit rank definitions; the uniform-subset design on Z/6Z; and the weak-null product law on D2 with the coordinate-swap action. Verify invariance and compute the ranks and design p-value.

[F1]

Measurable finite-group permutation setups: a finite group acts measurably on the experiment data space, and the theorem's null premise is invariance under every group element.

[F2]

Full-orbit and tie-randomized permutation p-values: the inclusive rank counts all group transformations with T(g⋅x)≥T(x); the randomized rank interpolates over the tied block using an independent uniform variable.

[F3]

Exact finite-group permutation p-values and tests: under an invariant null, inclusive ranks are superuniform and tie-randomized ranks are exactly uniform.

[F4]

Finite probability spaces, outcome weights, events, and event probabilities: nonnegative weights on a finite set that sum to one define a finite probability law, and event probabilities are sums of the weights.

[F5]

Identity-corrected random-permutation Monte Carlo p-value: without replacement, adjoin the identity to a uniformly selected B-subset of the nonidentity group elements, selected independently of the data X, and divide the inclusive count by B+1.

Verification

Given: The Bernoulli product law and S2 swap score, the Z/6Z design, and the weak mean-difference model and swap action stated in the Example.

1.1F1F4givenalgebra

All four masses are nonnegative and sum to (q+(1−q))2=1, so [F4] makes them a finite probability law. The swap fixes (0,0) and (1,1) and exchanges (0,1) with (1,0), which have equal mass. Thus Pq(s−1A)=Pq(A) for every A⊆Ω, and the group action is invariant for every q∈[0,1].

1.2F1F4F5givenalgebra

The subset S is uniform and independent of X by the Example, so it satisfies the without-replacement design premise in [F5]. In the Z/6Z example, addition by any fixed group element permutes the six equally likely outcomes, so the null law is invariant. If X=0, only the identity in W has score at least T(X)=1, and the without-replacement p-value is 1/3. If X≠0, then T(X)=0 and every element of W has score at least zero, so the p-value is 1. Its distribution is therefore 1/3 with probability 1/6 and 1 with probability 5/6; its CDF is superuniform.

2.1F2step 1.1algebra

At (0,0) and (1,1), both transformed scores are 0, giving porb=1 and ptie=U. At (1,0) the two scores are 1,−1, giving porb=1/2 and ptie=U/2. At (0,1) they are −1,1, giving porb=1 and ptie=(1+U)/2.

3.1F2F3step 2.1algebra

Put a=q(1−q). Then porb=1/2 with probability a and equals 1 otherwise. Its CDF is 0 for u<1/2, a≤1/4≤u for 1/2≤u<1, and 1 at u=1, so it is superuniform. For 0≤u≤1/2, the tie-randomized CDF is 2au+(1−2a)u=u: the (1,0) branch contributes 2au, the (0,1) branch contributes zero except at a probability-zero endpoint, and the tied branches contribute (1−2a)u. For 1/2≤u≤1, it is a+a(2u−1)+(1−2a)u=u. Thus ptie is uniform, in agreement with [F3].

4.1F1F4givenalgebra∎

In the weak mean-difference example, E[X]=E[Y]=0. But the coordinate swap sends (1,0) to (0,1), and the product law assigns these points probabilities P(X=1)Q(Y=0)=1/4 and P(X=0)Q(Y=1)=0, respectively. Hence this weak null does not make the pooled law invariant under the swap, so the invariant-null premise of [F3] cannot be inferred from equality of means.

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