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Gaussian mixture likelihood is unbounded under covariance collapse

Example

Assume AC. Use Θ=(0,∞) with its Borel sigma-algebra as the scale parameter space, with ϵ the first component's standard deviation; let X=R with its Borel sigma-algebra and Lebesgue measure, and let latent labels Z={1,2} have the power-set sigma-algebra and counting measure. Let φμ,σ(y)=(2π σ)−1exp⁡(−(y−μ)2/(2σ2)) for σ>0, the density of N(μ,σ2) from A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density. Put a1=0, s1=ϵ, a2=1, and s2=1. For two independent observations and their two latent labels, use the complete-data density relative to Lebesgue measure on R2 and counting measure on {1,2}2: pϵ(y1,y2,z1,z2)=∏i=1212φazi,szi(yi). Its one-observation marginal is the two-component mixture gϵ(y)=12φ0,ϵ(y)+12φ1,1(y),ϵ>0. For observations (0,1) the likelihood is Lϵ=gϵ(0)gϵ(1). The Gaussian components are proper for every positive ϵ, but Lϵ→∞ as ϵ↓0, so this observed likelihood has no finite global maximizer.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, the displayed Gaussian densities, mixture weights 1/2, observations (0,1), the two-label product model above, and the parameter ϵ>0.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is the hypothesis of the positive-variance normal location-scale density result used below.

[F1]

A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density: under AC, N(m,σ2) has Lebesgue density (2π σ)−1e−(y−m)2/(2σ2) for every m∈R and σ>0.

[F2]

Latent-variable joint and observed-data factorization: a complete-data density must be jointly measurable and normalized on each parameter fibre; its observed marginal is obtained by integrating over the latent coordinate.

[F3]

EM does not decrease the observed log likelihood: the proved EM conclusion is a one-step nondecrease on admissible fibers and does not assert existence of a global likelihood maximum.

[F4]

Likelihood ascent alone gives no global optimality or convergence conclusion: likelihood ascent alone supplies no global-optimality or convergence theorem.

[F5]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: for a nonnegative product-measurable function on sigma-finite measure spaces, the product integral equals either iterated integral.

Verification

1.1givenA1F1F2F5algebra

For each fixed label pair the displayed density is continuous in (ϵ,y1,y2) on (0,∞)×R2; the finite label space therefore makes it jointly measurable. For each observation coordinate, ∑j=12∫R12φaj,sj(y) dy=1 by [F1]. Lebesgue measure and finite counting measure are sigma-finite, so Tonelli [F5] gives integral 1⋅1=1 for the nonnegative two-coordinate product density. This verifies the requirements of [F2] directly. Summing over the two labels in each coordinate gives the observed joint density gϵ(y1)gϵ(y2), so its value at (0,1) is Lϵ.

2.1givenstep 1.1algebra

At the two observations, gϵ(0)≥122π ϵ and gϵ(1)≥122π. Thus Lϵ≥1/(8πϵ). For every M>0, choosing 0<ϵ<1/(8πM) gives Lϵ>M, so the likelihood is unbounded while each fixed-ϵ value is finite. No finite parameter attains a global maximum.

3.1F3F4step 2.1∎

This is compatible with [F3]–[F4]: the ascent theorem only compares consecutive admissible iterates; it neither bounds the likelihood sequence nor supplies a parameter attaining its unbounded supremum.

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