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A periodic chain has Cesaro but not ordinary convergence

Example

Assume AC (The Axiom of Choice). On the two-point state space E={0,1} let p be the deterministic alternation

p=(0110),sop(n)={I,n even,p,n odd,

with invariant probability π=(1/2,1/2). Then the Cesàro laws from any starting state converge,

1n∑k=0n−1p(k)(x,⋅) ⟶ πfor x∈{0,1},

while the ordinary-time transition probability p(n)(0,0) alternates between 1 and 0 and therefore does not converge. The chain has period two, so it is not aperiodic, and the failure is exactly the one that aperiodicity rules out.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; the state space E={0,1}; the matrix p(0,1)=p(1,0)=1 with p(0,0)=p(1,1)=0; and π=(1/2,1/2).

[A1]

Every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; AC is assumed and is used through the positive-recurrence supplier [F6] and the Cesàro supplier [F8]. (The Axiom of Choice)

[F1]

For a countable probability kernel, p(x,y)=K(x,{y}) and p(n)(x,y)=Kn(x,{y}) for n∈N0, with p(0)(x,y)=1{x=y} and ∑yp(n)(x,y)=1. (Transition matrices and n-step probabilities)

[F2]

For r,s≥0, p(r+s)(x,z)=∑w∈Ep(r)(x,w)p(s)(w,z). (Matrix Chapman–Kolmogorov equations)

[F3]

x→y means p(n)(x,y)>0 for some n≥0; states communicate when each is accessible from the other, and the chain is irreducible when every pair communicates. (Accessibility, communication, and irreducibility)

[F4]

On a countable state space a probability vector π is invariant exactly when π(y)=∑x∈Eπ(x)p(x,y) for every y∈E. (Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel)

[F5]

Rx={n≥1:p(n)(x,x)>0} is the positive return set, and when it is nonempty d(x) is the greatest positive integer dividing every element of Rx. (Period of a state)

[F6]

Assume AC. For an irreducible countable chain, existence of an invariant probability is equivalent to positive recurrence of every state. (Positive recurrence and stationary probability for irreducible countable chains)

[F7]

For an irreducible chain the state periods d(x) agree, the common value is positive and is called per⁡(p), and the chain is aperiodic when per⁡(p)=1. (Aperiodic irreducible chain)

[F8]

Assume AC. For an irreducible positive-recurrent p on countable E with invariant probability π, 1n∑k=0n−1p(k)(x,y)→π(y) for all x,y∈E. (Cesaro convergence for irreducible positive-recurrent chains)

Verification

Given: AC; E={0,1}; the matrix p(0,1)=p(1,0)=1, p(0,0)=p(1,1)=0; and π=(1/2,1/2).

Proof technique: compute all powers of p from the two-step identity, check irreducibility and invariance, transfer to positive recurrence, read off the period, and evaluate the ordinary and Cesàro averages explicitly.

1.1F1F2algebra

The matrix p is a transition matrix: both entries of each row are 0 or 1 and each row sums to one. Multiplying once, p2=I, so by [F2] an induction gives p(2m)=I and p(2m+1)=p for every m≥0; in particular p(n)(0,0)=1 for even n and p(n)(0,0)=0 for odd n≥1, while p(n)(0,⋅)=δ0 for even n and δ1 for odd n.

2.1F3step 1.1

The chain is irreducible: p(0,1)=1>0 and p(1,0)=1>0 by step 1.1, so 0→1 and 1→0, and each state is accessible from itself with a zero-step path; by [F3] every pair communicates.

2.2F4step 1.1given

The law π is invariant: ∑xπ(x)p(x,0)=π(1)p(1,0)=12=π(0) and ∑xπ(x)p(x,1)=π(0)p(0,1)=12=π(1), which is the criterion of [F4].

2.3F1step 1.1

Ordinary convergence fails at the level of a single transition probability: by step 1.1 the diagonal sequence p(n)(0,0) equals 1 at even n and 0 at odd n, so it alternates and does not converge as n→∞; correspondingly the laws p(n)(0,⋅) alternate between the two point masses δ0 and δ1 and do not converge.

3.1F6step 2.1step 2.2

Positive recurrence: the chain is irreducible by step 2.1 and has the invariant probability π by step 2.2, so [F6] gives that every state is positive recurrent; in particular the hypotheses of the Cesàro supplier [F8] are met.

3.2F5F7step 1.1step 2.1

The chain is not aperiodic: by step 1.1 the positive return set of [F5] is R0={2,4,6,… }, whose greatest common divisor is 2, so d(0)=2; the periods agree on the irreducible chain by [F7], so per⁡(p)=2≠1 and p is not aperiodic.

4.1F8step 1.1step 2.2step 3.1algebra

Cesàro convergence: step 1.1 gives p(k)=I for even k and p(k)=p for odd k, so for even n=2m the average is 12m∑k=02m−1p(k)=12m m(I+p)=12(I+p), and for odd n=2m+1 it is m(I+p)+I2m+1→12(I+p); the matrix 12(I+p) has both rows equal to (1/2,1/2)=π. Hence 1n∑k=0n−1p(k)(x,⋅)→π for each starting state x, which is the displayed Cesàro assertion; since the chain is irreducible and positive recurrent with invariant π by steps 2.1, 2.2 and 3.1, this is exactly the conclusion of the general supplier [F8].

5.1A1F6F8step 3.2step 2.3step 4.1given∎

Boundary and scope cases: the identity at n=0 is included and is consistent with p(0)(0,0)=1, so the alternation starts with the value 1; the two-state chain is the smallest deterministic cycle and the period is exactly two, so the example exhibits the necessity of aperiodicity rather than a failure of irreducibility or of existence of π; the Cesàro average equals π exactly for every even n and converges otherwise, so no aperiodicity is needed for the averaged statement, and the example claims no converse implication in the other direction; the state space is finite, all sums are finite, and no limit is interchanged with an infinite sum; the two hypotheses needed by [F8], irreducibility and positive recurrence, are verified at steps 2.1 and 3.1 and the invariant law at step 2.2, while the matrices themselves are determined by the fixed data; and AC [A1] is spent exactly on the general suppliers [F6] and [F8], the direct computations of steps 1.1–4.1 being choice-free.

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