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Two-look Pocock-type symmetric spending
Example
Assume AC, take , , , and . Use the symmetric two-sided Pocock-type spending curve where and is the natural logarithm. Its first spend is . Let be the standard normal CDF and let be the unique real number with . The first symmetric boundary is . The second boundary is the unique finite satisfying where the canonical covariance gives . The joint probability of continuing past look 1 and crossing at look 2 is therefore . Conditional on continuing, the second-look crossing probability is . The Pocock-type spending curve does not assert constant standardized boundaries; each boundary is calibrated under the joint law.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, the two planned information fractions , , the canonical Gaussian null law, and the stated Pocock-type spending curve. Verify the curve is admissible and identify the two two-sided boundaries exactly.
Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design: A design has nondecreasing with , , and canonical covariance for .
Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration: At a positive increment the symmetric two-sided boundary solves .
Group-sequential boundaries exist uniquely and spend alpha exactly: Every positive increment has a unique finite boundary and at each look.
Standard normal and normal laws: The standard normal law has density .
The standard normal density has total mass one: The density is positive and has integral one.
The real exponential function and the number by a power series: The real exponential is defined by its power series and .
The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function: For , is the unique real with .
Order, continuity, range, and the product, quotient, and reciprocal laws for the natural logarithm: is continuous and strictly increasing on , and .
The exponential function is strictly increasing: The real exponential is strictly increasing on .
Continuity from below for measures: The measure of the union of an increasing sequence of measurable sets is the supremum of their measures.
Intermediate value theorem, by bisection with a canonical left-half rule: a continuous function on takes every value between and : A continuous real function on a closed bounded interval attains every value between its endpoint values.
The Axiom of Choice: Assume the Axiom of Choice.
Verification
Since by its power series and is strictly increasing by [F9], . Thus increases from to as goes from to . By [F7]–[F8], , , and is nondecreasing with values in . At this gives and .
The standard normal CDF satisfies for . By [F4]–[F5], this difference is positive and at most , so is strictly increasing and continuous. Its limits at and are and : [F10] applied to gives the lower-tail limit, and [F10] applied to gives the upper-tail limit; the density has no point masses. Therefore [F11] gives a unique for every . In particular is finite, positive, and symmetry and atomlessness give .
The canonical covariance matrix is , so its determinant is and the correlation is . Applying [F2]–[F3] at the second look gives the unique finite satisfying the displayed cumulative two-sided crossing equation. The event and the continued-path event are disjoint and their union is the final rejection event. Hence the continued-path event has joint probability , and since , its conditional probability given continuation is . The total rejection probability is .
Depends on
- Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design
- Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration
- Group-sequential boundaries exist uniquely and spend alpha exactly
- Standard normal and normal laws
- The standard normal density has total mass one
- The real exponential function and the number $e$ by a power series
- The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function
- Order, continuity, range, and the product, quotient, and reciprocal laws for the natural logarithm
- The exponential function is strictly increasing
- Continuity from below for measures
- Intermediate value theorem, by bisection with a canonical left-half rule: a continuous function on $[a,b]$ takes every value between $f(a)$ and $f(b)$
- The Axiom of Choice
Used by
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Sources
- David L. DeMets and K. K. Gordon Lan, Interim Analysis: The Alpha Spending Function Approach, Statistics in Medicine 13 (1994), PDF pp. 6–7 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Michael J. Grayling, James M. S. Wason, and Adrian P. Mander, Group Sequential Clinical Trial Designs for Normally Distributed Outcome Variables, The Stata Journal 18(2) (2018), PDF pp. 2–4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Giorgos Minas, Multivariate Global Testing and Adaptive Designs, PhD thesis, Chapter 5 §§5.3–5.3.1, printed pp. 72–73 (standard reference, not scraped)