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Group-sequential boundaries exist uniquely and spend alpha exactly

Statement

Assume AC and the canonical group-sequential design of Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design. The recursive boundary algorithm Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration is well-defined: every positive spending increment has a unique finite boundary, while a zero increment has boundary +∞. For every k, the probability under P0 of a rejection by look k is A(tk); in particular the terminal simple-null rejection probability is α. When embedded in an experiment with a nonempty alternative and a singleton null whose law is P0, the test size is therefore α. The same cumulative-probability conclusion holds for separately calibrated symmetric two-sided crossing events. This exact statement is conditional on the specified joint Gaussian null law and prescheduled information fractions; it does not cover data-dependent timing, an estimated variance, or a composite null without an additional argument.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, a finite K≥1, prescheduled fractions 0<t1<⋯<tK=1, α∈(0,1), a nondecreasing spending function A:[0,1]→[0,α] with A(0)=0 and A(1)=α, and the specified canonical null vector Z∼NK(0,Σ). Prove the boundary algorithm is well-defined and gives cumulative null rejection probability A(tk) at each planned look.

[F1]

Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design: The planned information fractions, spending-function conditions, canonical covariance Σjk=tj/tk for j≤k, and the one-sided or symmetric two-sided crossing events are as stated in the definition.

[F2]

Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance: Under AC, for finite d and symmetric positive semidefinite Σ, the law Nd(m,Σ) exists and has a realization m+Σ1/2Y with independent standard-normal coordinates Y.

[F3]

Characteristic function of a multivariate normal law: Under AC, the vector characteristic function of Nd(m,Σ) is exp⁡(iu⋅m−uTΣu/2) and determines its Borel law uniquely, including for singular Σ.

[F4]

Standard normal and normal laws: Under AC, the standard normal law N(0,1) is the probability measure with density ϕ(x)=e−x2/2/2π on Borel subsets of R.

[F5]

The standard normal density has total mass one: The standard normal density ϕ(x)=e−x2/2/2π is positive and Borel measurable and has Lebesgue integral one.

[F6]

Continuity from below for measures: For an increasing sequence of measurable sets En, a measure satisfies μ(⋃nEn)=sup⁡nμ(En).

[F7]
[F8]

Test size and power: For a statistical experiment and nonempty disjoint null and alternative hypotheses, the size of a test is the supremum of its rejection probability over the null; when the null is a singleton, size is its rejection probability under that one null law.

[F9]

Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration: At a positive spending increment the one-sided mode solves P0(Rk−1∪{Zk≥bk})=A(tk) and the symmetric two-sided mode solves P0(Rk−1∪{∣Zk∣≥ck})=A(tk); at a flat increment the boundary is +∞.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: Assume the Axiom of Choice.

Proof

1.1givenF1algebra

For 1≤i≤j≤K, define a lower-triangular matrix L by Lj1=t1/tj and, for 2≤i≤j, Lji=(ti−ti−1)/tj, with Lji=0 for i>j. For j≤k, the (j,k) entry of LLT is t1+∑i=2j(ti−ti−1)tjtk=tj/tk=Σjk. Thus Σ=LLT. Its diagonal entries in L are 1 and (ti−ti−1)/ti>0 for i≥2, so L is invertible and vTΣv=∥LTv∥2>0 for every nonzero v.

1.2F2F4F5algebra

For every k, the kth coordinate has law N(0,1) by the projection clause in [F2]. It has no atoms, and for x<y, 0<P0(x<Zk<y)=∫xyϕ(u) du≤y−x2π. Positivity follows from [F5]; the upper bound follows from 0<e−u2/2≤1. The same facts bound a two-sided strip by P0(c<∣Zk∣<d)≤2(d−c)/2π when 0≤c<d.

2.1step 1.1F2F3F4F5A1construct

By [F2] and [F3], the canonical law exists and is represented by Z=Σ1/2Y for independent standard-normal coordinates Y. Since Σ is positive definite by step 1.1, Σ1/2 is invertible: if Σ1/2v=0, then vTΣv=0, forcing v=0. The inverse image under this linear homeomorphism of any nonempty open subset of RK is nonempty and open, hence contains a product of nonempty open intervals. Each interval has positive standard-normal probability by [F4]–[F5], and independence makes the product probability positive. Therefore every nonempty open subset of RK has positive P0-probability.

3.1givenF1step 2.1construct

For the induction step, fix k∈{1,…,K}. Assume that the boundaries through k−1 have been constructed with P0(Rk−1)=A(tk−1); for k=1 this is the empty base case R0=∅, A(t0)=A(0)=0. Any finite two-sided boundary already constructed is positive, as established when its root was obtained. Let S=Rk−1c. In the one-sided mode, S is the intersection of the open conditions Zj<bj for earlier finite boundaries; in the symmetric two-sided mode, it is the intersection of ∣Zj∣<cj for earlier finite boundaries. These conditions describe a nonempty open set: choose each constrained coordinate below its upper boundary, or inside its interval (−cj,cj), and ignore infinite boundaries. Thus P0(S)=1−A(tk−1)≥1−α>0.

4.1step 2.1step 3.1step 1.2F6algebraconstruct

In the one-sided mode set q(x)=A(tk−1)+P0(S∩{Zk≥x}) for x∈R. If x<y, then q(x)−q(y)=P0(S∩{x≤Zk<y})>0. Although S⊆RK, it restricts only coordinates j<k, as described in step 3.1. Thus Ox,y:=S∩{z∈RK:x<zk<y} is nonempty and open: choose each earlier coordinate below its finite one-sided boundary (or arbitrarily when its boundary is +∞), choose zk∈(x,y), and choose the remaining coordinates arbitrarily. By step 2.1, P0(Ox,y)>0; the only part of S∩{x≤Zk<y} omitted from Ox,y lies on Zk=x, which has probability zero by step 1.2. Also ∣q(x)−q(y)∣≤(y−x)/2π by step 1.2, so q is continuous. Moreover q(x)→1 as x→−∞ and q(x)→A(tk−1) as x→+∞, since the omitted lower and upper normal tails tend to zero. For the symmetric two-sided mode set q(c)=A(tk−1)+P0(S∩{∣Zk∣≥c}) for c≥0. For 0≤c<d, q(c)−q(d)=P0(S∩{c≤∣Zk∣<d})>0. Here S again restricts only coordinates j<k, so Oc,d:=S∩{z∈RK:c<∣zk∣<d} is nonempty and open: set every earlier coordinate to 0 (which satisfies every finite earlier symmetric no-crossing condition because its boundary is positive), choose zk=(c+d)/2, and choose the remaining coordinates arbitrarily. Step 2.1 gives P0(Oc,d)>0. The bound in step 1.2 makes q continuous. Here q(0)=1 and q(c)→A(tk−1) as c→+∞. The tail limits in both modes follow from [F6] applied to increasing lower or central intervals of the standard-normal coordinate.

5.1givenF1F7F9step 4.1algebra

Since A is nondecreasing, either A(tk)=A(tk−1) or A(tk−1)<A(tk)≤α<1. In the flat case, [F9] assigns +∞, whose crossing event is empty, so the previous cumulative probability is unchanged. In the increasing case, the target lies strictly between the endpoint limits of q. The limits in step 4.1 give finite endpoints on which the continuous function takes values on opposite sides of A(tk); [F7] gives a root. Strict decrease in step 4.1 makes that finite root unique. The induction therefore defines every boundary through the finite maximum K. In the symmetric two-sided mode q(0)=1>A(tk), so the root is strictly positive.

6.1F1F2F4F8F9step 5.1algebra∎

The induction step is complete: at an increasing look the selected root gives P0(Rk)=A(tk) by [F9]; at a flat look the event union is unchanged and A(tk)=A(tk−1). Induction from R0=∅ proves the equality for every k. Stopping at the first crossing makes Rk exactly the event of rejection by look k. At k=K, tK=1 and A(1)=α, so the terminal simple-null rejection probability is α. For any embedding with a nonempty alternative and singleton null {θ0} whose law is P0, the rejection indicator is a measurable test function because RK is a finite union of Borel threshold events; [F8] then makes its size α. AC is used in the supplied Gaussian law and representation [F2] and [F4], not in the finite root selection: each root is unique and there are only finitely many looks.

Depends on

Used by

Cited to discharge well-definedness by Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design and Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration.

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