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Group-sequential boundaries exist uniquely and spend alpha exactly
Statement
Assume AC and the canonical group-sequential design of Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design. The recursive boundary algorithm Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration is well-defined: every positive spending increment has a unique finite boundary, while a zero increment has boundary . For every , the probability under of a rejection by look is ; in particular the terminal simple-null rejection probability is . When embedded in an experiment with a nonempty alternative and a singleton null whose law is , the test size is therefore . The same cumulative-probability conclusion holds for separately calibrated symmetric two-sided crossing events. This exact statement is conditional on the specified joint Gaussian null law and prescheduled information fractions; it does not cover data-dependent timing, an estimated variance, or a composite null without an additional argument.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a finite , prescheduled fractions , , a nondecreasing spending function with and , and the specified canonical null vector . Prove the boundary algorithm is well-defined and gives cumulative null rejection probability at each planned look.
Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design: The planned information fractions, spending-function conditions, canonical covariance for , and the one-sided or symmetric two-sided crossing events are as stated in the definition.
Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance: Under AC, for finite and symmetric positive semidefinite , the law exists and has a realization with independent standard-normal coordinates .
Characteristic function of a multivariate normal law: Under AC, the vector characteristic function of is and determines its Borel law uniquely, including for singular .
Standard normal and normal laws: Under AC, the standard normal law is the probability measure with density on Borel subsets of .
The standard normal density has total mass one: The standard normal density is positive and Borel measurable and has Lebesgue integral one.
Continuity from below for measures: For an increasing sequence of measurable sets , a measure satisfies .
Intermediate value theorem, by bisection with a canonical left-half rule: a continuous function on takes every value between and : A continuous real function on a closed bounded interval takes every value between its endpoint values.
Test size and power: For a statistical experiment and nonempty disjoint null and alternative hypotheses, the size of a test is the supremum of its rejection probability over the null; when the null is a singleton, size is its rejection probability under that one null law.
Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration: At a positive spending increment the one-sided mode solves and the symmetric two-sided mode solves ; at a flat increment the boundary is .
The Axiom of Choice: Assume the Axiom of Choice.
Proof
For , define a lower-triangular matrix by and, for , , with for . For , the entry of is Thus . Its diagonal entries in are and for , so is invertible and for every nonzero .
For every , the th coordinate has law by the projection clause in [F2]. It has no atoms, and for , Positivity follows from [F5]; the upper bound follows from . The same facts bound a two-sided strip by when .
By [F2] and [F3], the canonical law exists and is represented by for independent standard-normal coordinates . Since is positive definite by step 1.1, is invertible: if , then , forcing . The inverse image under this linear homeomorphism of any nonempty open subset of is nonempty and open, hence contains a product of nonempty open intervals. Each interval has positive standard-normal probability by [F4]–[F5], and independence makes the product probability positive. Therefore every nonempty open subset of has positive -probability.
For the induction step, fix . Assume that the boundaries through have been constructed with ; for this is the empty base case , . Any finite two-sided boundary already constructed is positive, as established when its root was obtained. Let . In the one-sided mode, is the intersection of the open conditions for earlier finite boundaries; in the symmetric two-sided mode, it is the intersection of for earlier finite boundaries. These conditions describe a nonempty open set: choose each constrained coordinate below its upper boundary, or inside its interval , and ignore infinite boundaries. Thus .
In the one-sided mode set for . If , then . Although , it restricts only coordinates , as described in step 3.1. Thus is nonempty and open: choose each earlier coordinate below its finite one-sided boundary (or arbitrarily when its boundary is ), choose , and choose the remaining coordinates arbitrarily. By step 2.1, ; the only part of omitted from lies on , which has probability zero by step 1.2. Also by step 1.2, so is continuous. Moreover as and as , since the omitted lower and upper normal tails tend to zero. For the symmetric two-sided mode set for . For , . Here again restricts only coordinates , so is nonempty and open: set every earlier coordinate to (which satisfies every finite earlier symmetric no-crossing condition because its boundary is positive), choose , and choose the remaining coordinates arbitrarily. Step 2.1 gives . The bound in step 1.2 makes continuous. Here and as . The tail limits in both modes follow from [F6] applied to increasing lower or central intervals of the standard-normal coordinate.
Since is nondecreasing, either or . In the flat case, [F9] assigns , whose crossing event is empty, so the previous cumulative probability is unchanged. In the increasing case, the target lies strictly between the endpoint limits of . The limits in step 4.1 give finite endpoints on which the continuous function takes values on opposite sides of ; [F7] gives a root. Strict decrease in step 4.1 makes that finite root unique. The induction therefore defines every boundary through the finite maximum . In the symmetric two-sided mode , so the root is strictly positive.
The induction step is complete: at an increasing look the selected root gives by [F9]; at a flat look the event union is unchanged and . Induction from proves the equality for every . Stopping at the first crossing makes exactly the event of rejection by look . At , and , so the terminal simple-null rejection probability is . For any embedding with a nonempty alternative and singleton null whose law is , the rejection indicator is a measurable test function because is a finite union of Borel threshold events; [F8] then makes its size . AC is used in the supplied Gaussian law and representation [F2] and [F4], not in the finite root selection: each root is unique and there are only finitely many looks.
Depends on
- Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design
- Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration
- Test size and power
- Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance
- Characteristic function of a multivariate normal law
- Standard normal and normal laws
- The standard normal density has total mass one
- The Axiom of Choice
- Continuity from below for measures
- Intermediate value theorem, by bisection with a canonical left-half rule: a continuous function on $[a,b]$ takes every value between $f(a)$ and $f(b)$
Used by
Cited to discharge well-definedness by Canonical group-sequential alpha-spending design and Recursive group-sequential boundary calibration.
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Sources
- David L. DeMets and K. K. Gordon Lan, Interim Analysis: The Alpha Spending Function Approach, Statistics in Medicine 13 (1994), PDF pp. 2–3, 6–7 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Michael J. Grayling, James M. S. Wason, and Adrian P. Mander, Group Sequential Clinical Trial Designs for Normally Distributed Outcome Variables, The Stata Journal 18(2) (2018), PDF pp. 2–4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Giorgos Minas, Multivariate Global Testing and Adaptive Designs, PhD thesis, Chapter 5 §§5.3–5.3.1, printed pp. 72–73 (standard reference, not scraped)