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ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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Singular prior and predictive covariances in Gaussian-process regression

Example

On T={a,b} take mean zero and constant kernel k(s,t)=1. Observe both indices with independent noise covariance I2, and test the repeated list X∗=(b,b). At observation vector y=(1,0), the selected posterior-kernel mean is (1/3,1/3) and covariance is 13(1111), which is singular, although the observed covariance is positive definite.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; the two-index constant-kernel process; and noise ϵ∼N2(0,I2) independent of the process.

[A1]

AC is required by the finite Gaussian-process and multivariate-normal constructions. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

Any symmetric positive-semidefinite kernel on an arbitrary set defines a canonical cylinder-space Gaussian process under AC. A mean and positive-semidefinite kernel define a Gaussian process

[F2]

Under AC, every finite symmetric positive-semidefinite covariance matrix defines a possibly singular Gaussian law. Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance

[F3]

A finite product of sigma-finite measures exists and has the rectangle product formula. For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique

[F4]

Product-coordinate random elements are independent when their rectangle probabilities factor. Independent random elements Independent random elements are characterized by finite rectangle probabilities

[F5]

Coordinates on the cylinder sigma-algebra are measurable, and a finite product sigma-algebra is generated by its coordinate sets. Coordinate maps, finite-coordinate cylinders, and the cylinder σ-algebra The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates

[F6]

With positive-definite observed covariance, the finite posterior law is Gaussian with the Schur-complement covariance, which may be singular. Finite Gaussian-process posterior and predictive laws

Verification

Given: The parameters, repeated test list, and observation vector in the Example.

1.1A1F1F2F3F4F5givenconstructalgebra

For any finite coefficient list, the constant kernel's quadratic form is (∑iai)2≥0. Thus [F1] constructs the cylinder GP and [F2] supplies N2(0,I2). Their product probability exists by [F3]; its process and noise random elements are measurable by [F5] and independent by [F4].

1.2F6givenalgebra

The observation covariance is KXX=J2, which has rank one, while C=J2+I2=(2112) has quadratic form u2+v2+(u+v)2>0 for every nonzero (u,v). Hence it is positive definite and C−1=13(2−1−12). For the repeated test list, K∗X=K∗∗=J2. Since C is positive definite, the hypotheses of [F6] hold.

2.1F6step 1.2algebra

Multiplication gives K∗XC−1y=(1/3,1/3)T. Also C−1J2=13J2, so K∗XC−1KX∗=23J2 and the conditional covariance is J2−23J2=13J2. Its determinant is zero and its rank is one. By [F6] this is a valid singular Gaussian conditional law.

3.1F6step 1.2step 2.1∎

The prior observation covariance and conditional predictive covariance are both singular, whereas the matrix inverted by the formula is the positive-definite observed covariance C. This verifies why singular prior and predictive blocks are permitted under the stated condition.

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