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Finite weighted upper-tail p-values and randomized ties

Statement

Let (Ω,w) be a finite probability space, let T:Ω→R, and let Z have law w. Define q(z):=∑ω∈Ωw(ω)1{T(ω)≥T(z)}. Then Pr⁡(q(Z)≤u)≤u for every u∈[0,1]. If an auxiliary random variable U is independent of Z and uniform on [0,1], define q+(Z,U):=∑ω∈Ωw(ω)1{T(ω)>T(Z)}+U∑ω∈Ωw(ω)1{T(ω)=T(Z)}. Then Pr⁡(q+(Z,U)≤u)=u for every u∈[0,1].

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite probability space (Ω,w), a real score T on it, and, for the randomized assertion, an independent U with Pr⁡(U≤u)=u for u∈[0,1].

[F1]

Finite probability spaces, outcome weights, events, and event probabilities: w(ω)≥0 and ∑ω∈Ωw(ω)=1; event probabilities are sums of the weights over the event.

[A1]

The auxiliary randomizer is independent of Z and has the continuous uniform distribution on [0,1], characterized by Pr⁡(U≤u)=u.

Proof

technique · direct finite enumeration of score levels
1.1givenF1construct

The positive-weight support is nonempty by [F1]. List its finitely many distinct score values in decreasing order as t1>⋯>tm, let dj=∑T(ω)=tjw(ω)>0, and put a0=0 and aj=∑k=1jdk. These cumulative masses satisfy 0=a0<a1<⋯<am=1.

2.1givenF1step 1.1algebra

If T(Z)=tj, then q(Z)=aj. For u<1, the indices with aj≤u form an initial segment; if its last index is j0, then Pr⁡(q(Z)≤u)=∑j≤j0dj=aj0≤u, while an empty segment has probability zero. At u=1 the probability is one. Thus q(Z) is superuniform.

2.2givenA1step 1.1algebra

On the score level tj, the strict-tail mass is aj−1 and the tied mass is dj, so q+(Z,U)=aj−1+Udj. By [A1], conditional on this score level its probability of being at most u is zero for u≤aj−1, (u−aj−1)/dj for aj−1<u<aj, and one for u≥aj.

3.1step 2.2step 1.1algebra∎

Multiplying these conditional probabilities by dj gives the lengths of [aj−1,aj]∩[0,u]. These consecutive intervals partition [0,1], so their lengths sum to u. Therefore Pr⁡(q+(Z,U)≤u)=u for every u∈[0,1].

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Used by

Dependency tree · two levels

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Sources