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Fisher sharp-null randomization p-values are valid

Statement

In a finite randomized treatment-assignment model, fix any real-valued predeclared ordering score T(z,y). For observed data (z,y) define prand(z,y):=∑z′∈Zp(z′)1{T(z′,y)≥T(z,y)}. Let λ be the uniform probability measure on the Borel subsets of [0,1]. For each θ, equip X×[0,1] with the product sigma-algebra 2X⊗B([0,1]) and define P~θ(E):=∑z∈Zp(z) λ({u∈[0,1]:((z,Yθ(z)),u)∈E}). Let U be the [0,1] coordinate on this extension. Define p+(z,y,U):=∑z′∈Zp(z′)1{T(z′,y)>T(z,y)}+U∑z′∈Zp(z′)1{T(z′,y)=T(z,y)}. For every schedule satisfying the Fisher sharp null and every u∈[0,1], Pθ ⁣(prand(Z,Yθ(Z))≤u)≤u, whereas the added randomization gives P~θ ⁣(p+(Z,Yθ(Z),U)≤u)=u. Thus prand is a valid finite-sample p-value for the sharp null, and randomized ties give an exactly uniform p-value when the additional independent uniform randomizer is used. For a two-sided test, take T(z,y)=∣S(z,y)−s0∣ with its center s0 fixed in advance. The result uses the actual, possibly unequal assignment probabilities; random assignment supplies no Gaussian error law, and this theorem makes no validity claim under the weak zero-average-effect null from Finite-population average treatment effect and weak null unless it is also Fisher-sharp.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite assignment set with its known probability law, a fixed potential-outcome schedule satisfying the Fisher sharp null, a predeclared real-valued score on assignment and response data, and the uniform probability measure λ on [0,1].

[F1]

Finite randomized treatment-assignment models: the units and potential-outcome schedule are fixed, Z has the finite assignment law p, and the observed response vector is Yθ(Z).

[F2]

Fisher sharp null and predeclared test orderings: under the Fisher sharp null there is one vector y with Yi(z)=yi for every unit and assignment; the ordering score is fixed before assignment and outcome inspection.

[F3]

Finite weighted upper-tail p-values and randomized ties: for any finite weighted assignment law and real score, the inclusive weighted upper-tail rank is superuniform, and an independent uniform variable fills each score atom to give an exactly uniform value.

[F4]

Valid p-values: a p-value statistic is valid for a null when its probability of being at most u is at most u for every null law and every u∈[0,1].

[F5]

Statistics and estimators: a statistic is a measurable map from the experiment's data space to its stated target measurable space.

[F6]

Finite-population average treatment effect and weak null: in the no-interference binary-treatment submodel, the weak null requires only the finite-population average of unit effects to be zero; the sharp null requires every unit effect to be zero.

[A1]

The measure λ is uniform, so λ([0,u])=u for u∈[0,1].

Proof

technique · reduce each sharp-null schedule to the finite weighted rank lemma
1.1givenF1F2F4constructchoose

The schedule with Yi(z)=0 for every unit and assignment belongs to the Fisher sharp null, so its null class is nonempty as required by [F4]. Fix any sharp-null schedule θ and choose its common response vector y by [F2]. For every realized assignment Z, the observed vector Yθ(Z) equals y, and every assignment score T(z,y) is therefore imputable.

1.2F1A1givenconstructalgebra

For each product-measurable E, its section Ex:={u:(x,u)∈E} is Borel, since the sets with Borel sections form a sigma-algebra containing all measurable rectangles. Thus the displayed finite sum defines a measure: for disjoint En, each section (⋃nEn)Oθ(z) is the disjoint union of the sections (En)Oθ(z), and countable additivity of λ passes through the finite weighted sum. Its total mass is ∑zp(z)λ([0,1])=1. Moreover, for A⊆X and Borel B⊆[0,1], P~θ(A×B)=∑z:Oθ(z)∈Ap(z)λ(B)=Pθ(A)λ(B). Hence the data coordinate has law Pθ, U is uniform and independent of the data, and therefore U is independent of Z.

2.1F1F5step 1.1step 1.2algebra

The formula prand(z,y) is a finite sum of selected nonnegative assignment weights, so it lies in [0,1]. It is a statistic because the data space has its full power-set sigma-algebra, so every preimage is measurable by [F5]. On the extension, each score-comparison condition defines a measurable subset of the data space, while U is measurable; hence the finite formula for p+ is measurable. Its value lies between zero and the total assignment mass one.

3.1F3step 1.1step 1.2step 2.1

On this fixed schedule set Ty(z)=T(z,y). Substituting Yθ(Z)=y from step 1.1 into the two displayed formulas identifies prand(Z,Yθ(Z)) and p+(Z,Yθ(Z),U) with the two finite weighted rank transforms of [F3] on (Z,p). By steps 1.2 and 2.1, U is independent of Z and uniform, so the tie-randomized transform also satisfies [F3]. Hence Pθ(prand(Z,Yθ(Z))≤u)≤u and P~θ(p+(Z,Yθ(Z),U)≤u)=u for every u∈[0,1].

4.1F2F4F6step 3.1algebra∎

Since the bound holds for every schedule in the sharp null, [F4] makes prand a valid p-value for that null. The randomized value is uniform under each extended law P~θ, and therefore is also superuniform there; its threshold rule has null rejection probability at most its threshold. No step uses an error distribution. By [F2] and [F6], the argument covers a weak average-effect schedule only when it also satisfies the sharp null.

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