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Fisher sharp-null randomization p-values are valid
Statement
In a finite randomized treatment-assignment model, fix any real-valued predeclared ordering score . For observed data define Let be the uniform probability measure on the Borel subsets of . For each , equip with the product sigma-algebra and define Let be the coordinate on this extension. Define For every schedule satisfying the Fisher sharp null and every , whereas the added randomization gives Thus is a valid finite-sample p-value for the sharp null, and randomized ties give an exactly uniform p-value when the additional independent uniform randomizer is used. For a two-sided test, take with its center fixed in advance. The result uses the actual, possibly unequal assignment probabilities; random assignment supplies no Gaussian error law, and this theorem makes no validity claim under the weak zero-average-effect null from Finite-population average treatment effect and weak null unless it is also Fisher-sharp.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite assignment set with its known probability law, a fixed potential-outcome schedule satisfying the Fisher sharp null, a predeclared real-valued score on assignment and response data, and the uniform probability measure on .
Finite randomized treatment-assignment models: the units and potential-outcome schedule are fixed, has the finite assignment law , and the observed response vector is .
Fisher sharp null and predeclared test orderings: under the Fisher sharp null there is one vector with for every unit and assignment; the ordering score is fixed before assignment and outcome inspection.
Finite weighted upper-tail p-values and randomized ties: for any finite weighted assignment law and real score, the inclusive weighted upper-tail rank is superuniform, and an independent uniform variable fills each score atom to give an exactly uniform value.
Valid p-values: a p-value statistic is valid for a null when its probability of being at most is at most for every null law and every .
Statistics and estimators: a statistic is a measurable map from the experiment's data space to its stated target measurable space.
Finite-population average treatment effect and weak null: in the no-interference binary-treatment submodel, the weak null requires only the finite-population average of unit effects to be zero; the sharp null requires every unit effect to be zero.
The measure is uniform, so for .
Proof
The schedule with for every unit and assignment belongs to the Fisher sharp null, so its null class is nonempty as required by [F4]. Fix any sharp-null schedule and choose its common response vector by [F2]. For every realized assignment , the observed vector equals , and every assignment score is therefore imputable.
For each product-measurable , its section is Borel, since the sets with Borel sections form a sigma-algebra containing all measurable rectangles. Thus the displayed finite sum defines a measure: for disjoint , each section is the disjoint union of the sections , and countable additivity of passes through the finite weighted sum. Its total mass is . Moreover, for and Borel , Hence the data coordinate has law , is uniform and independent of the data, and therefore is independent of .
The formula is a finite sum of selected nonnegative assignment weights, so it lies in . It is a statistic because the data space has its full power-set sigma-algebra, so every preimage is measurable by [F5]. On the extension, each score-comparison condition defines a measurable subset of the data space, while is measurable; hence the finite formula for is measurable. Its value lies between zero and the total assignment mass one.
On this fixed schedule set . Substituting from step 1.1 into the two displayed formulas identifies and with the two finite weighted rank transforms of [F3] on . By steps 1.2 and 2.1, is independent of and uniform, so the tie-randomized transform also satisfies [F3]. Hence and for every .
Since the bound holds for every schedule in the sharp null, [F4] makes a valid p-value for that null. The randomized value is uniform under each extended law , and therefore is also superuniform there; its threshold rule has null rejection probability at most its threshold. No step uses an error distribution. By [F2] and [F6], the argument covers a weak average-effect schedule only when it also satisfies the sharp null.
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Sources
- Gary W. Oehlert, A First Course in Design and Analysis of Experiments, Chapter 2, §2.4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Siva Balakrishnan, CMU 36-705 Lecture 28, §28.5 Fisher's Exact p-values (standard reference, not scraped)