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Uniform convergence of empirical risk-set fractions

Statement

For g∈{0,1}, let Xg1,Xg2,… be IID measurable [0,∞)-valued observed times with law Pg. For deterministic ng→∞, define Yg,n(t):=∑i=1ng1{Xgi≥t},sg(t):=Pg(Xg1≥t),0≤t≤τ. Then, for each group, sup⁡0≤t≤τ∣Yg,n(t)ng−sg(t)∣⟶P0.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A fixed finite horizon, an IID sequence of real observed times in each group, and the empirical threshold class F={ft:t∈[0,τ]} with ft(x)=1{x≥t}.

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families: within each group the observations have one common law and the full family is mutually independent.

[F2]

Random elements and real random variables: each observed time is a measurable real-valued map, so every threshold indicator ft(Xgi) is a random variable.

[F3]

Empirical, centered, and Rademacher processes: Pgf=∫f dPg and Pg,nf=ng−1∑i=1ngf(Xgi).

[F4]

Glivenko–Cantelli classes: a nonempty pointwise-measurable class with an integrable envelope is Pg-Glivenko--Cantelli when its uniform empirical deviation tends to zero in probability.

[F5]

Covering, packing, bracketing numbers, and metric entropy: an L1(Pg) bracket has measurable endpoints ℓ≤u, contains every function in its class between those endpoints, and has width Pg(u−ℓ).

[F6]

Glivenko–Cantelli theorem by bracketing entropy: for IID observations, a nonempty pointwise-measurable function class with an integrable envelope and finite L1(Pg) bracketing number at every positive scale has uniform empirical deviation tending to zero in probability. The theorem's separate almost-sure branch assumes Countable Choice; that branch is not used here.

Proof

1.1F1F2F4given

Each ft is measurable. The subclass with rational thresholds in [0,τ] is countable and pointwise dense: for t>0 choose rationals qk↑t with 0≤qk<t, while for t=0 use the member f0 itself. If x≥t, every fqk(x)=1; if x<t, then qk>x eventually and fqk(x)=0. Hence fqk(x)→ft(x) for every x. The envelope is the constant function 1, which is measurable and has Pg-integral 1.

1.2F5given

Put q(t):=Pg(Xg1≥t). For s<t, the indicators are nested and Pg∣fs−ft∣=Pg(s≤Xg1<t)=q(s)−q(t). The function q is nonincreasing with range in [0,1]. Fix ϵ>0 and set δ=ϵ/3. Partition [0,1] into finitely many intervals of length at most δ and group thresholds whose q-values lie in the same interval. Each threshold class in one group is nested; its pointwise infimum and supremum are measurable threshold indicators (possibly their one-sided endpoint limits), and they bracket the group. The L1(Pg) width is the supremum of Pg∣fs−ft∣ over thresholds in that group, at most δ, by the displayed identity. Thus at most ⌈1/δ⌉+1 brackets cover F, so N[](ϵ,F,L1(Pg))<∞. This also handles atoms: a jump in q larger than a bin width places the two threshold sides in different bins, while a smaller jump contributes at most the bin's total q-width.

2.1F3F4F6step 1.1step 1.2∎

Steps 1.1 and 1.2 verify pointwise measurability, the integrable envelope, and every finite-bracketing hypothesis in [F6]. Its convergence-in-probability conclusion gives sup⁡t∈[0,τ]∣Pg,nft−Pgft∣→P0. Since Pg,nft=Yg,n(t)/ng and Pgft=sg(t) by their definitions, this is the asserted uniform risk-set convergence. No Countable Choice or strong Glivenko--Cantelli conclusion is used.

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