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A randomized procedure has a measurable action law

Statement

Let K be a randomized procedure for the experiment E=((X,A),Θ,(Pθ)θ∈Θ) with action space (D,G). Give [0,+∞] its Borel sigma-algebra. For every nonnegative G/B([0,+∞])- measurable function g:D→[0,+∞], the function hg(x)=∫Dg(a) K(x,da) is A-measurable. In particular, x↦K(x,B) is measurable for every action event B∈G. For each θ∈Θ, the set function Qθ(B)=∫XK(x,B) Pθ(dx),B∈G, is a probability measure on (D,G), and for every such g, ∫Dg dQθ=∫X(∫Dg(a) K(x,da))Pθ(dx). with nonnegative extended values allowed.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The experiment and randomized procedure in the statement, and a nonnegative measurable function g on the action space.

[F1]

For each θ, Pθ is a probability measure on (X,A) (Statistical experiments).

[F2]

For every x, K(x,⋅) is a probability measure, and for every B∈G, x↦K(x,B) is measurable (Measure kernel and probability kernel).

[F3]

The expectation of a nonnegative measurable function under Pθ is its extended nonnegative integral (Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable).

[F4]

A nonnegative simple measurable function has finite range and a finite sum representation using disjoint measurable sets (Nonnegative simple measurable functions).

[F5]

The simple integral of ∑jcj1Bj is ∑jcjμ(Bj) (The integral of a nonnegative simple function).

[F6]

The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on nonnegative simple functions (The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions).

[F7]

The nonnegative integral is additive on finite sums of nonnegative measurable functions (Additivity of the nonnegative Lebesgue integral).

[F8]

The nonnegative integral is monotone and homogeneous under positive scalar multiplication; the zero function has integral zero. No product 0⋅(+∞) is formed (Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral).

[F9]

Nonnegative measurable functions admit increasing simple approximations (Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions).

[F10]

Increasing pointwise limits pass through nonnegative integrals (Monotone convergence for the integral).

[F11]

The nonnegative extended sum is the supremum of its finite partial sums (Series in the nonnegative extended real line).

[F12]

A measure is countably additive and assigns zero to the empty set; a probability measure also assigns mass one to the whole space (Measures on sigma-algebras, Probability measures and probability spaces).

[F13]

Finite sums of nonnegative measurable functions are measurable. Nonnegative scalar multiples of real-valued measurable functions are measurable, and increasing pointwise limits of nonnegative measurable functions are measurable, including extended-valued limits (Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral).

Proof

technique · direct
1.1F1F2F3F5F6F8F12

Fix θ∈Θ. For each B∈G, the function x↦K(x,B) is measurable and lies in [0,1] by [F2]. Thus its integral is finite and at most ∫1 dPθ=1 by [F1], [F3], [F8], and [F12]. Since K(x,∅)=0 and K(x,D)=1, the simple-integral formula and agreement [F5, F6] give Qθ(∅)=0 and Qθ(D)=Pθ(X)=1.

1.2F2F4F5F6F9F10F13

By [F9], choose nonnegative simple functions gn↑g. Fix n and write gn=∑j=1mcj1Bj with finite m, cj≥0, and pairwise disjoint Bj∈G, as in [F4]. The simple-integral formula and agreement [F5, F6] give hgn(x)=∑j=1mcjK(x,Bj). Each summand is measurable by [F2], and finite sums and nonnegative scalar multiples are measurable by [F13]. For every x, monotone convergence under the probability measure K(x,⋅) gives hgn(x)↑hg(x). Thus hg is measurable by the increasing-limit clause of [F13].

2.1F1F2F7F10F11F12F13step 1.1

If (Bj)j∈N are pairwise disjoint members of G, then for every x, K(x,⋃jBj)=lim⁡N→∞SN(x), where SN(x)=∑j=0NK(x,Bj), by countable additivity of K(x,⋅). Each SN is measurable by [F2] and finite-sum closure [F13], and SN increases. Monotone convergence [F10] and finite additivity of the nonnegative integral [F7] give Qθ(⋃jBj)=lim⁡N∑j=0NQθ(Bj)=∑jQθ(Bj), where the last expression is the nonnegative extended sum [F11]. Together with step 1.1 and [F12], this proves that Qθ is a probability measure.

3.1givenF2F3F4F5F6F7F8step 1.1step 2.1

For an indicator g=1B, [F5] and [F6] give hg(x)=K(x,B) and ∫g dQθ=Qθ(B), so the defining equation for Qθ proves the iterated-integral identity. Finite addition [F7] and nonnegative homogeneity [F8] extend this equality from indicators to every nonnegative simple g.

4.1F1F3F10step 2.1step 1.2step 3.1∎

The increasing simple sequence from step 1.2 satisfies gn↑g and hgn↑hg. By step 1.2 all hgn and hg are measurable; by step 2.1, Qθ is a probability measure. Applying monotone convergence [F10] under Qθ and under Pθ to the simple identities of step 3.1 proves the asserted equality, including when its value is +∞.

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