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TheoremStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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The belief state is a sufficient statistic for finite POMDP control

Statement

Let a finite POMDP with known model be fixed. A deterministic history policy chooses an action from the finite action set using only preceding actions and observations; a randomized history policy assigns an action distribution using only that history, with its randomization conditionally independent of the hidden state. For every positive-probability history ht with belief bt and every action a having positive conditional selection probability at that history,

Pr⁡(St+1=s′,Ot+1=o∣ht,At=a)=∑s∈Sbt(s)T(s′∣s,a)O(o∣s′).

Consequently the observation probability is q(o∣bt,a), the next belief is τ(bt,a,o) whenever that probability is positive, and the conditional expected reward is rˉ(bt,a). The controlled belief-state model has the fully observed Borel state space Δ(S), action set A, transition kernel K, and reward rˉ; under a policy depending only on the current belief, the belief process is Markov. For every remaining finite horizon n, the optimal value depends on the history only through b and satisfies

V0(b)=0,Vn+1(b)=max⁡a∈A[rˉ(b,a)+γ∑o:q(o∣b,a)>0q(o∣b,a)Vn(τ(b,a,o))].

Each maximum is attained; randomizing an action cannot increase the value. An observation with zero probability requires no posterior update. The conclusion holds for γ∈[0,1] and uses no Axiom of Choice.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite POMDP with finite nonempty S,A,Ω, initial belief b0, discount γ∈[0,1], a history policy as in the statement, and a positive-probability history ht with belief bt.

[F1]

Conditional on state s and action a, the joint next-state/reward/observation mass is p(s′,ρ∣s,a)O(o∣s′); rewards are not observed. Finite partially observable Markov decision process

[F2]

A positive-probability history has its explicit conditional state distribution bt; q(o∣b,a) is the observation marginal, and τ(b,a,o) is defined by Bayes' formula only when q>0. Belief states and the finite Bayes filter

[F3]

The induced belief transition K(⋅∣b,a) is a probability kernel, and its sections assign total mass one while omitting zero-likelihood observations. The finite POMDP Bayes filter is a probability kernel

[F4]

Every nonempty finite set of real numbers has an attained maximum. Every nonempty finite set of reals has a maximum and a minimum

[F5]

Finite sums are enumeration-independent, preserve termwise inequalities, and scale by constants. The sum ∑i∈Sai over a finite index set, and its product form, Laws of finite sums and finite products

Proof

1.1givenF1F2

Fix ht and a as in the statement. By [F2], bt(s)=Pr⁡(St=s∣ht). Conditioning first on St and using the POMDP's specified one-step law [F1] gives Pr⁡(St+1=s′,Ot+1=o∣ht,At=a)=∑s∈Sbt(s)T(s′∣s,a)O(o∣s′). The action selection does not alter bt after conditioning on ht, because its randomization depends only on that history and is conditionally independent of the hidden state.

2.1step 1.1F2F3

Summing the joint probability in step 1.1 over s′ yields q(o∣bt,a) by [F2]. If this is positive, dividing the joint mass by it gives Pr⁡(St+1=s′∣ht,At=a,Ot+1=o)=τ(bt,a,o)(s′); if it is zero, the observation event has probability zero and no conditional quotient is used. By [F3], these positive branches form the probability kernel K.

2.2step 1.1F1F2F3

Conditioning the immediate reward on the current hidden state and chosen action gives E[Rt∣ht,At=a]=∑s∈Sbt(s)r(s,a)=rˉ(bt,a) by [F1] and [F2]. Thus the conditional immediate reward and next-belief law depend on the history only through bt and a, which proves the stated controlled belief-state transition and reward description.

3.1givenstep 2.1step 2.2F2F4

We prove the finite-horizon recursion by induction on n. With no decisions remaining, the reward sum is empty, so V0(b)=0. Suppose the optimal n-step continuation value is the function Vn of the current belief. If action a is taken at belief b, its immediate expected reward is rˉ(b,a) by step 2.2, and for each positive-probability observation o the remaining belief is τ(b,a,o) by step 2.1. Conditional expectation over the finite observation set therefore gives the n+1 step action value Qn+1(b,a):=rˉ(b,a)+γ∑o:q>0q(o∣b,a)Vn(τ(b,a,o)). The set {Qn+1(b,a):a∈A} is a nonempty finite image of A in R, so [F4] gives an attained maximum. Taking that maximum gives the displayed Vn+1(b). The expression depends only on b, completing the induction and proving history sufficiency for every finite horizon.

4.1step 3.1F4F5∎

If the action at a history is randomized with probabilities λa, its expected action value is ∑a∈AλaQn+1(b,a), where Qn+1 is the finite action value from step 3.1, λa≥0, and ∑aλa=1. Since each Qn+1(b,a)≤max⁡c∈AQn+1(b,c), [F5] gives ∑aλaQn+1(b,a)≤max⁡c∈AQn+1(b,c). Randomization cannot improve the finite-horizon value.

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