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For n≥1 independent random signs, P(∣S∣≥t)≤2exp⁡(−t2/(2n)) for t>0

Statement

Let ε0,…,εn−1 be mutually independent uniform random signs, where n≥1, and put S=∑i<nεi. For every t>0, P(∣S∣≥t)≤2exp⁡ ⁣(−t22n).

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Independent random signs, n≥1, their sum S, and t>0.

[L1]

Markov gives P(Y≥a)≤E[Y]/a for nonnegative Y and a>0 (Markov's inequality on a finite probability space).

[L2]

On the finite probability space, expectations can be computed by grouping the attained values. (Expectation is the sum of each attained value times its probability)

[L3]

A uniform sign satisfies E[exp⁡(uε)]≤exp⁡(u2/2) (For a uniform random sign ε, E[etε]≤et2/2).

[L4]

The exponential is strictly increasing (The exponential function is strictly increasing).

[L5]

Probability of a finite union is at most the sum of the probabilities (The finite union bound).

[L6]

Mutual independence is the factorization of all joint attained-value probabilities (Pairwise and mutual independence of finite-valued random variables).

[L8]

exp⁡(x+y)=exp⁡(x)exp⁡(y) for real x,y. (The exponential addition formula exp⁡(x+y)=exp⁡(x)exp⁡(y))

Proof

technique · direct
1.1L2L6L7L8algebra

For every real u, [L2] groups the finite outcome sum by the sign tuple a∈{−1,1}n. Mutual atom independence [L6] and exponential addition [L8] give EeuS=∑a∈{−1,1}n∏i<n(euaiP(εi=ai))=∏i<n∑ai∈{−1,1}euaiP(εi=ai)=∏i<nEeuεi, where finite Fubini [L7] justifies the middle equality. All sums and factors are finite.

1.2L1L4

For u>0, strict monotonicity gives {S≥t}={exp⁡(uS)≥exp⁡(ut)}, so [L1] gives P(S≥t)≤exp⁡(−ut)E[exp⁡(uS)].

2.1L3step 1.1algebra

By step 1.1 and [L3], E[exp⁡(uS)]≤exp⁡(nu2/2).

3.1step 1.2step 2.1choosealgebra

Choose u=t/n>0. Substitution in steps 1.2 and 2.1 gives P(S≥t)≤exp⁡(−t2/(2n)).

4.1step 3.1L6algebra

Negation merely relabels the two attained values of each sign, so the joint-value factorization in [L6] shows that the variables −εi are again mutually independent uniform signs. Step 3.1 applied to −S gives the same bound for P(S≤−t).

5.1step 3.1step 4.1L5∎

Since {∣S∣≥t}={S≥t}∪{S≤−t}, [L5] and steps 3.1 and 4.1 give the result. The excluded boundary t=0 would only give the valid but uninformative bound 1≤2.

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