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Expectation factors over a finite product of mutually independent random variables

Statement

Let (Xi)i∈I be a finite mutually independent family of real random variables on a common probability space, with independence in the sense of Independent random elements.

  1. If every Xi is integrable, then ∏i∈IXi is integrable and E ⁣[∏i∈IXi]=∏i∈IE[Xi] in R.
  2. If every Xi is nonnegative, the same identity holds in [0,+∞]. A zero factor on the right makes the product zero even if another factor is +∞; otherwise the usual extended nonnegative product is used.

The original finite-probability-space case is included: for a finite family of finite-valued real random variables, mutual atom independence as in Pairwise and mutual independence of finite-valued random variables suffices, and all expectations are finite. For I=∅, both sides equal 1. The converse is not asserted.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite family (Xi)i∈I satisfying the independence and moment hypotheses of the applicable case in the Statement.

[L1]

Independence of random elements means independence of their inverse-image sigma-algebras. (Independent random elements)

[L2]

For an independent nonempty finite family of real random variables and Borel functions gi, the product expectations factor in the nonnegative extended case, with the explicit zero-factor convention, and in the integrable case; in the latter case the product is integrable. (Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables)

[L3]

For finite-valued random variables, mutual atom independence factors the joint probabilities of attained values for every subfamily. (Pairwise and mutual independence of finite-valued random variables)

[L4]

On a general probability space, P(∅)=0 follows from the set-difference identity with A=B, and P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B). For disjoint events this is two-set additivity, which gives finite disjoint additivity by induction. (Basic identities for a probability measure)

Proof

technique · direct
1.1L1L3L4algebra

In the original finite-valued case, let J⊆I and let Bi⊆R be Borel for i∈J. Write Ai for the finite attained-value set of Xi. The event ⋂i∈J{Xi∈Bi} is the disjoint union of the joint atoms indexed by ∏i∈J(Ai∩Bi). By [L3] and [L4], its probability is ∑(xi)∈∏i∈J(Ai∩Bi)∏i∈JP(Xi=xi)=∏i∈J∑xi∈Ai∩BiP(Xi=xi)=∏i∈JP(Xi∈Bi). Factoring finite sums proves the middle equality, including empty factors. Thus the family is independent in the sense of [L1]. Each variable is bounded because its attained-value set is finite, hence integrable on a probability space.

2.1L2step 1.1

Suppose I≠∅ and every Xi is integrable. Enumerate the finite set I by 0,…,n−1 and apply [L2] with gi(x)=x, which is Borel. It gives product integrability and the asserted real factorization. Selecting one enumeration of one finite set uses no axiom of choice. Step 1.1 supplies the required independence and integrability in the original finite-valued case.

3.1L2step 2.1

Suppose I≠∅ and every Xi is nonnegative. Apply [L2] to the same enumeration with gi(x)=max⁡(x,0), a continuous nonnegative Borel function. Since gi(Xi)=Xi, [L2] gives the asserted extended factorization with precisely its zero-factor convention.

4.1step 2.1step 3.1algebra∎

For I=∅, the random product is the constant 1, whose expectation is 1 on a probability space, and the product of expectations is the empty product 1. Steps 2.1 and 3.1 and this identity prove all stated cases.

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