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The Horvitz–Thompson total and mean are design-unbiased under positive inclusion probabilities

Statement

Let (U,y) be a finite population and let pd be a sampling design as in Finite populations and sampling designs. Suppose πi>0 for every i∈U. Give the real target space its Borel sigma-algebra. For an observed record (s,z)∈Xd, define T^HT(s,z):=∑i∈sziπi,yˉ^HT(s,z):=T^HT(s,z)N. Under the induced observed-data law Pyd, these are estimators of the finite-population total and mean, respectively, and Eyd[T^HT]=T(y),Eyd[yˉ^HT]=yˉU.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite nonempty unit set U, fixed values yi∈R, a finite sampling design pd, and πi>0 for every i∈U.

[F1]

Finite populations and sampling designs: The design has support Sd, weights pd, inclusion indicators Ii(s), probabilities πi, total T(y), mean yˉU, and observed record Oy(s).

[F2]

A finite-population design induces probability laws on observed records: The induced Pyd is a probability measure on the common observed-record space.

[F3]

Statistics and estimators: A statistic is a measurable map from the experiment's observation space; it is an estimator when its target is the specified estimand.

[F4]

The indicator random variable of an event: For an event A, its indicator is 1 on A and 0 outside A.

[F5]

Indicators turn event probabilities, intersections, and finite counts into expectations and products: On a finite probability space, E[1A]=P(A) and products of event indicators are indicators of intersections.

[F6]

Expectation of a real random variable on a finite probability space: Expectation is the finite weighted sum over design outcomes.

[F7]

Expectation is linear for every finite family of random variables, without any independence hypothesis: Expectation is linear for every finite family of real random variables on one finite probability space, without an independence assumption.

[F8]

The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space: The Borel sigma-algebra on R is the sigma-algebra generated by its open sets.

[F9]

Unbiased estimators and UMVU estimators: An estimator is unbiased when it is integrable under every model law and its expectation equals the estimand at every parameter.

Proof

1.1givenF1F2F3F8F9algebra

For every i, πi>0 makes the displayed denominator nonzero, so the formula defines a real-valued map on Xd. Its domain has the full power-set sigma-algebra, so the preimage of every Borel set is measurable by [F8]; its target is the total estimand from [F1]. Thus [F2] and [F3] make T^HT an estimator. For each fixed y, it has finite support and finite real values, hence is integrable under Pyd; division by the positive integer N gives the same properties for yˉ^HT. Thus both satisfy the integrability clause in [F9].

1.2F1F4F5F6

For each i∈U, let Ai={s∈Sd:i∈s}. Then Ii=1Ai by [F1] and [F4], so [F5] and [F6] give Ed[Ii]=Pd(Ai)=πi.

2.1F1F6F7F9step 1.1step 1.2algebra

On a sample s, the observed values satisfy zi=yi for i∈s; hence T^HT(Oy(s))=∑i∈UIi(s)yi/πi. Applying [F7] to this finite sum and using step 1.2 gives Eyd[T^HT]=∑i∈UyiπiEd[Ii]=∑i∈Uyi=T(y). Together with the integrability in step 1.1, this is unbiasedness by [F9]. No independence identity is used.

3.1givenF6F7F9step 1.1step 2.1algebra∎

Since N≥1 is fixed, linearity of the finite weighted expectation gives Eyd[yˉ^HT]=Eyd[T^HT]/N=T(y)/N=yˉU by step 2.1. Together with step 1.1, [F9] makes this the required unbiasedness claim for the mean estimator as well.

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