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The Horvitz–Thompson total and mean are design-unbiased under positive inclusion probabilities
Statement
Let be a finite population and let be a sampling design as in Finite populations and sampling designs. Suppose for every . Give the real target space its Borel sigma-algebra. For an observed record , define Under the induced observed-data law , these are estimators of the finite-population total and mean, respectively, and
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite nonempty unit set , fixed values , a finite sampling design , and for every .
Finite populations and sampling designs: The design has support , weights , inclusion indicators , probabilities , total , mean , and observed record .
A finite-population design induces probability laws on observed records: The induced is a probability measure on the common observed-record space.
Statistics and estimators: A statistic is a measurable map from the experiment's observation space; it is an estimator when its target is the specified estimand.
The indicator random variable of an event: For an event , its indicator is on and outside .
Indicators turn event probabilities, intersections, and finite counts into expectations and products: On a finite probability space, and products of event indicators are indicators of intersections.
Expectation of a real random variable on a finite probability space: Expectation is the finite weighted sum over design outcomes.
Expectation is linear for every finite family of random variables, without any independence hypothesis: Expectation is linear for every finite family of real random variables on one finite probability space, without an independence assumption.
The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space: The Borel sigma-algebra on is the sigma-algebra generated by its open sets.
Unbiased estimators and UMVU estimators: An estimator is unbiased when it is integrable under every model law and its expectation equals the estimand at every parameter.
Proof
For every , makes the displayed denominator nonzero, so the formula defines a real-valued map on . Its domain has the full power-set sigma-algebra, so the preimage of every Borel set is measurable by [F8]; its target is the total estimand from [F1]. Thus [F2] and [F3] make an estimator. For each fixed , it has finite support and finite real values, hence is integrable under ; division by the positive integer gives the same properties for . Thus both satisfy the integrability clause in [F9].
For each , let . Then by [F1] and [F4], so [F5] and [F6] give .
On a sample , the observed values satisfy for ; hence . Applying [F7] to this finite sum and using step 1.2 gives . Together with the integrability in step 1.1, this is unbiasedness by [F9]. No independence identity is used.
Since is fixed, linearity of the finite weighted expectation gives by step 2.1. Together with step 1.1, [F9] makes this the required unbiasedness claim for the mean estimator as well.
Depends on
- Finite populations and sampling designs
- A finite-population design induces probability laws on observed records
- Statistics and estimators
- Unbiased estimators and UMVU estimators
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- The indicator random variable of an event
- Expectation of a real random variable on a finite probability space
- Expectation is linear for every finite family of random variables, without any independence hypothesis
- Indicators turn event probabilities, intersections, and finite counts into expectations and products
Used by
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Sources
- Shalabh, Sampling Theory, Chapter 2: Simple Random Sampling, IIT Kanpur (standard reference, not scraped)
- John J. Borkowski, Horvitz–Thompson Estimators, STAT 446 Lecture 6, §6.2, printed pp. 141–143 (standard reference, not scraped)