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Mean and variance under balanced biological and technical replication

Statement

Assume the balanced model of Biological and technical replication model, with n,m≥1, and set Yˉ=1nm∑i=1n∑j=1mYij,Bˉ=1n∑i=1nBi,Eˉ=1nm∑i=1n∑j=1mEij,τˉ=1n∑i=1nτi. For a fixed treatment schedule (τi)i=1n, E[Yˉ]=μ+τˉ,Var⁡(Yˉ)=σb2n+σe2nm. If instead τ=(τ1,…,τn) is square-integrable and random under the assignment-averaged law, then E[Yˉ]=μ+E[τˉ],Var⁡(Yˉ)=σb2n+σe2nm+Var⁡(τˉ)+2Cov⁡(τˉ,Bˉ)+2Cov⁡(τˉ,Eˉ). Thus, when τˉ is independent of Bˉ and Eˉ, the assignment contribution is Var⁡(τˉ)=n−2∑i,k=1nCov⁡(τi,τk). If, in addition, the τi are mutually independent with common variance στ2, the full variance is σb2/n+σe2/(nm)+στ2/n. Without independence of the treatment average from Bˉ,Eˉ, the two covariance terms remain. No Gaussian assumption is required.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite balanced model and the random-variable conventions in Biological and technical replication model. For the second branch, τ has finite second moments under the declared assignment law.

[F1]

Biological and technical replication model: Yij=μ+τi+Bi+Eij; the Bi and Eij have zero means, common variances σb2 and σe2, and the complete finite family of biological and technical random variables is mutually independent.

[F2]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: for square-integrable real random variables, variance is the expectation of the centered square and covariance is the expectation of the product of centered variables.

[F3]

Covariance is symmetric and bilinear in finite linear combinations: covariance expands bilinearly over finite linear combinations of square-integrable random variables.

[F4]

Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: products of independent integrable real random variables are integrable and their expectations factor.

[F5]

Independent random elements: mutual independence means the generated sigma-algebras form an independent family; the random variables in [F1] therefore satisfy the independence hypothesis of [F4].

[F6]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: expectation is linear for finite linear combinations of integrable random variables.

Proof

Given: The assumptions in [F1], n,m≥1, and, in the random-treatment branch, a square-integrable treatment-contribution vector.

1.1givenF1F6algebra

Summing the model in [F1] over i,j gives Yˉ=μ+τˉ+Bˉ+Eˉ. Each summand is integrable, so [F6] and the zero means in [F1] give E[Yˉ]=μ+τˉ when τ is fixed, and E[Yˉ]=μ+E[τˉ] when it is random.

1.2F1F2F3F4F5

For distinct biological indices i≠k, distinct technical indices (i,j)≠(k,ℓ), and any biological-technical pair (i,(k,ℓ)), the variables in each pair are independent by [F1] and [F5]. They are integrable because they are square-integrable. Applying [F4] to identity functions gives expectation of the product equal to the product of their zero means; [F2] therefore makes every such off-diagonal covariance zero. By [F3], bilinearity over the finite index families then gives Cov⁡(Bˉ,Eˉ)=1n2m∑i=1n∑k=1n∑ℓ=1mCov⁡(Bi,Ekℓ)=0.

2.1F1F2F3step 1.2algebra

Bilinearity [F3] expands Var⁡(Bˉ) into n2 covariance terms with coefficient n−2. By 1.2 the off-diagonal terms vanish, and the n diagonal terms equal σb2 by [F1] and [F2]. Hence Var⁡(Bˉ)=n−2nσb2=σb2/n.

2.2F1F2F3step 1.2algebra

Bilinearity [F3] expands Var⁡(Eˉ) into (nm)2 covariance terms with coefficient (nm)−2. By 1.2 the off-diagonal terms vanish, and the nm diagonal terms equal σe2 by [F1] and [F2]. Hence Var⁡(Eˉ)=(nm)−2(nm)σe2=σe2/(nm).

3.1F2F3step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2algebra

With fixed τ, μ+τˉ is constant and has zero covariance with every square-integrable random variable by [F2]. Expand the variance of Bˉ+Eˉ using [F3]; its cross-covariance is zero by 1.2. Substituting 2.1 and 2.2 proves the fixed-schedule formula.

4.1F1F3F4step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2algebra∎

With random τ, expand the variance of τˉ+Bˉ+Eˉ by [F3]. The Bˉ-Eˉ covariance is zero by 1.2, and 2.1–2.2 give the two component variances, yielding exactly the displayed general formula with both treatment cross-covariances retained. If τˉ is independent of Bˉ and Eˉ, [F4] makes those cross-covariances zero. Expanding Var⁡(n−1∑iτi) by [F3] gives the stated covariance sum; when the τi are mutually independent with common variance στ2, only its n diagonal terms remain, giving στ2/n.

Remarks

The proof uses only finite sums and moment identities, so it is choice-free. The assignment contribution is not generally στ2/n: under a constrained or otherwise dependent assignment law, its covariance sum must be evaluated under that law. The identity is conditional on the stated model assumptions; it does not validate them or provide an exact normal inference procedure.

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