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Optional sampling for bounded stopping times
Statement
Assume AC. If is a martingale and are stopping times bounded by a deterministic , then so . For a submartingale the conditional and expectation inequalities point upward; for a supermartingale they point downward.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The hypotheses, objects, and conventions in the Statement.
Sigma-algebra at a stopping time gives the events usable in conditional testing.
A stopped random variable is measurable at the stopping time gives the required measurability of stopped values.
Bounded predictable transforms preserve martingales gives zero expected martingale transforms. Nonnegative predictable transforms preserve submartingale gains gives the upward sign for submartingales and nonnegative holdings; applying it to gives the downward sign for supermartingales.
Conditional expectation as an ae class identifies a conditional expectation from all event integrals.
The Axiom of Choice supplies conditional-expectation representatives.
Proof
Put for . Both and lie in , so is nonnegative, bounded, and predictable. On the probability-one event , the finite pathwise telescope is The integral identities below use this almost-sure equality; no equality is asserted on a null outcome with .
Fix . On , ; hence and the first factor on the right is -measurable by F1. Thus is another bounded nonnegative predictable process.
Apply F3's one-step conditional calculation and sum: for a submartingale, for a martingale equality holds, and for a supermartingale the inequality reverses. Almost-sure boundedness identifies every stopped value almost surely with a finite sum of integrable variables, while F2 gives -measurability of . F4 therefore identifies the stated conditional relation. Taking gives the expectation relation. AC has exactly the role in F5.
Depends on
Used by
- Expected duration of symmetric gambler's ruin Corollary
- Stationary irreducible Markov shift is ergodic Corollary
- An unbounded stopped exponential martingale needs uniform integrability Counterexample
- Exponential martingale Brownian tail bound Example
- Hitting probabilities from an exponential martingale Example
- Stopping a likelihood-ratio martingale Example
- Characteristic exponential for a continuous local martingale with deterministic clock Lemma
- Finite-horizon Brownian change of drift and relative entropy Lemma
- Finite-horizon crossing bound for a nonnegative test supermartingale Lemma
- Planar Brownian annular exit probability Lemma
- Quadratic variation of a continuous local martingale Lemma
- Brownian-filtration martingale representation Theorem
- Mixtures of null test supermartingales Theorem
- Optional stopping under uniform integrability Theorem
- Optional stopping with a dominating integrable variable Theorem
- Optional stopping with integrable time and bounded increments Theorem
- The ridge estimate lies in a time-uniform linear confidence ellipsoid Theorem
- Ville's inequality for nonnegative test supermartingales Theorem
Dependency tree · two levels
21 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- van der Vaart, Martingales, Diffusions and Financial Mathematics, Theorem 2.42 and proof, pp. 21–22 (standard reference, not scraped)