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TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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Planar Surface-Code Memory Bound Under IID Z Noise

Statement

For each integer d≥2, use the relative d×d square patch, which has n=2d2 data qubits. On a finite probability space, let each data edge independently carry a Z error with probability ϵ∈[0,1]. For each syndrome, choose any minimum-cardinality correction; the bound below holds for every such choice. Under one perfect syndrome round, the logical-memory failure probability satisfies

Plogical≤(d+1)∑ℓ=dn(36ϵ)ℓ/2.

Consequently Plogical decays exponentially in d, up to a polynomial prefactor, for ϵ<1/36. This is an ideal-syndrome memory theorem; it is not a faulty-gate circuit threshold.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: An integer d≥2, the finite relative square patch with data-edge count n=2d2, a finite family of mutually independent Bernoulli Z-error indicators each of rate ϵ∈[0,1], one perfect syndrome round, minimum-cardinality recovery, and the geometric path interface in [F3].

[F1]

Finite probability spaces, outcome weights, events, and event probabilities: A finite probability space is a pair (Ω,w) consisting of a finite set and nonnegative weights summing to one; event probabilities are sums of outcome weights.

[F2]

Minimum-Weight Recovery Failure Yields a Half-Error Crossing Path: On logical failure, a minimum-cardinality correction with the same perfect syndrome yields a self-avoiding left-to-right path of length d≤ℓ≤n containing at least ⌈ℓ/2⌉ actual error edges.

[F3]

Square planar surface-code distance and path count: For each ℓ≥1, the number of self-avoiding rough-to-rough paths of length ℓ is at most (d+1)3ℓ.

[F4]

Independent families of event classes: The family (Ci)i∈I is independent when for every natural number n≥1, every choice of distinct indices i0,…,in−1, and every choice of events Ak∈Cik, one has P(⋂k<nAk)=∏k<nP(Ak).

[F5]

The finite union bound: For every finite family of events A0,…,An−1, P ⁣(⋃i<nAi)≤∑i<nP(Ai).

Proof

1.1givenF1F2F4F5algebra

Fix a candidate path P of length ℓ. A logical failure witness on it requires at least k=⌈ℓ/2⌉ actual errors by [F2]. If at least k of its ℓ edges are faulty, some k-subset is entirely faulty. There are at most (ℓk)≤2ℓ such subsets; by [F4] each has probability ϵk≤ϵℓ/2 for ϵ∈[0,1]. The union bound [F5] gives P(P is a failure witness)≤2ℓϵℓ/2.

2.1F2F3F5step 1.1algebra

There are at most (d+1)3ℓ candidate paths of length ℓ by [F3]. By [F2], every logical failure lies in the union of witness events for paths with d≤ℓ≤n. The finite union bound [F5] and step 1.1 therefore give Plogical≤∑ℓ=dn(d+1)3ℓ2ℓϵℓ/2=(d+1)∑ℓ=dn(36ϵ)ℓ/2.

3.1step 2.1algebra∎

If ϵ<1/36, set r=6ϵ<1. The finite sum is at most ∑ℓ=d∞rℓ=rd/(1−r), so Plogical≤d+11−6ϵ(6ϵ)d. The denominator is a fixed positive constant for fixed ϵ<1/36, while d+1 is polynomial in d; hence the bound decays exponentially up to a polynomial prefactor.

Remarks

The geometric inputs are the relative-cycle crossing property and the finite path count in [F2] and [F3]. The probability argument uses their stated directions only; it needs no enumeration of all logical operators and no assumption about independence of recovery choices. Perfect syndrome and iid Z-noise are essential hypotheses. No circuit-level gate threshold follows.

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